12 Comments Add your own

• 1. Alex  |  December 10th, 2009 at 11:15 pm

  The flash presentation appears to have moved. To view it, I clicked on “BRICs,” then “Web Tour: The BRICs Dream.” I assume this is the same presentation.

  Some thoughts:

  I did my own simplified analysis of GDP growth rate a few years back. Assuming the US grows continuously at a rate of 3% and China at 10% per year, China will have a larger GDP around 2025. This assumes that the last 30 years of Chinese growth continues for the next 18 years, which seems more and more plausible as the years pass.

  Looking at the 2050 GDP projections that the presentation provides, I notice that Brazil and Russia are still tiny compared to China, the US, and India. Brazil and Russia may be important in the future, but they don’t quite seem to fit the scale of China and India.

  Although it is a footnote, the presentation raises a good point about the aging Chinese population. As the average age of a country rises, there are fewer younger people to produce. This may slow down China in the coming decades. I would like to see a study the effect of aging populations on a nation.

  The presentation could have used some charts of the state of today’s economy. The extra charts would be helpful for comparing the presentation’s projections to the world today.

• 2. William Ary  |  January 3rd, 2010 at 11:04 am

  I read a book on applied economics by Thomas Sowell, notable laissez faire economist of the Hoover Institution at Stanford that addresses the influence of BRICs in the future. He suggested that ultimately, the most important factors that determine the growth of a nation’s GDP in the aggregate are the size of the country, its available natural resources and the size of its’ population. I can only assume that the Goldman Sachs analysts included many more factors in their analysis, but their results seem to bear out this conclusion. China and India will be big players because of the size of the natural and human resources they wield. China has a head start in the utilization of these resources for industry. I think that over the long term, population growth will settle to a constant around the carrying capacity of each country, giving India the advantage, especially if China continues to lose arable land due to desertification. Ultimately, lower populations are preventing Brazil and Russia from catching up to China and India, and it remains to be seen whether the vast natural resources available to them can upset the balance of power in the world economy, even in the long term.

• 3. Lindsay Leaver  |  January 7th, 2010 at 8:48 pm

  I thought the presentation was interesting and well done. It is definitely pushing the agenda of investing money in BRICs markets, which seems to be a smart decision considering many US investments aren’t what they used to be.

  So what will it mean for the US politically and as far as our superpower status? In modern times political power and economic power go hand in hand. Is political power tied to wealth or size of the economy? The video mentioned that even though the economies will increase beyond the size of America, the wealth will not. Does that mean the US may will keep its role as military and political leader?

  Also - does anyone know why Russia is the only country with greatly increasing wealth? Is it because of the oil? There are already many newly rich Russians oil barons, maybe this will continue?

• 4. Tim Lynds  |  January 23rd, 2010 at 2:13 pm

  This presentation was well put together and very easy to follow and understand, but it is a little over simplified. As the comments above indicate, the presentation leaves a lot of questions unanswered. Yes, I do understand that the video is just a brief introduction to the BRIC phenomenon designed to peak interest in investors, but I still feel like it was oversimplified.

  For me, the biggest point of confusion was exactly what Alex brings up in his comment. Forgive my ignorance, but I am failing to see how Brazil and to a lesser extent, Russia, are grouped into the same categories with China and India. As Alex mentioned, the forecasted 2050 numbers are much lower for Brazil and Russia than for China and India. There are undoubtedly good investment opportunities in Brazil and Russia, but it is hard to imagine that the return on investment would be anywhere near to investments in China and India. It would be great to hear in anyone has more insight on this.

• 5. Catherine Kristensen  |  February 6th, 2010 at 5:38 pm

  I could not get the presentation to load, but I read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC, which l assume highlights similar information.

  I remember Zakaria mentioning these countries when he discussed the “rise of the rest” in his book, “The Post American World,” but I hadn’t heard this acronym before. Clever.

  Does anyone else find it intriguing that China hosted the 2008 Olympics (their first time), Russia is set to host the 2014 Olympics (also their first time*) and Brazil is slated to host the 2016 Olympics (surprise, their first time as well!)?

  AND… drumroll please… YES, as you might have predicted, the last piece (brick?) of the BRIC puzzle could fall into place if Delhi hosts the 2020 Olympics. The Indian Olympic Association has stated that Delhi will bid for the 2020 Olympic Games, and frankly, they might have a chance given the fact that they will be hosting the upcoming 2010 Commonwealth Games.

  The fact that these four countries may soon all share in the honor, pressure and privilege of hosting the Olympic Games provides excellent evidence of the potential for the BRICs pending growth and global domination.

  *Moscow hosted the Olympics in 1980; 2014 will be the first hosting since the disintegration of the USSR in 1990.

• 6. Jason Silver  |  February 10th, 2010 at 7:45 pm

  The BRIC phenomena is very intriguing, but also very exciting. To be able to live through a time of unbelievable world growth is inspiring. As future business leaders, we have the opportunity to lead the expansion of growth of American business overseas. Brazil, Russia, China, and India will be the countries that we look for new opportunities.

  Currently, the European Union is the next dominant economic force aside from the U.S. Investment opportunities in these countries is in decline and economic growth has leveled out. The next best option will be these BRIC’s. We should all make an effort to acquaint ourselves with these future economic powerhouses.

  Adeus. до свидания. अलविदा. 再见. Goodbye!

• 7. Kirk Story  |  February 16th, 2010 at 10:47 pm

  Goldman Sachs’ analysis of the BRIC economies is bullish to say the least. In the next 45 years, the economic growth of Brasil, Russia, India, and China will have, “enormous influence on every aspect of our societies.” This leads one to ponder how the US may be influenced by the rise of these vast and populous nations.

  A budding middle class, or consumer market, will act as a snowball effect on the rate of growth for the BRIC nations. If American style ‘big-boxification’ replicates itself as the middle class consumption model of choice in BRIC, it is predictable that a large amount of resources will be required to accommodate demand. All nations are entitled to their fun playing the consumption game. It will, nevertheless, be interesting to see how all the world’s nations choose to allocate finite resources over the long-term.

  What will be the state of the US’s ego in a multipolar economic reality? Will we be fearful and defensive? It’s arguable that we have already experienced a surge in US resentment towards China and Russia. This surge is multi-faceted, but economic forfeiture is a factor. On a personal level, I witness the suspicion and distrust of China when I visit my redneck buddies in the north. One friend sent a mass email about the atrocious act of flying the Chinese flag in DC during a China/US diplomacy visit. I suggested it may be our way of thanking China for being the US’s #1 lender.

  The growing middle class of the BRIC nations will certainly lead to a better educated globe. It is hopeful heightened education connects ideas and spreads knowledge. It is hopeful that as the globe’s educated see themselves as a piece of the whole. Let’s also hope intellectuals in the US and maybe even my redneck pals gain some sort of awareness for the world outside our border. Fear-based reactions to the rise of the rest will prove futile and recessive for the overall human community.

• 8. John Barry  |  February 27th, 2010 at 12:12 am

  I’ve folllowed alot of what Mr. Oneil has said over the years and continue to be astounded by his individual talent as well as the collective intelligence of the Goldman Sachs group. Because economic trends are so difficult to predict given the unpredictable nature of world events and humans in general, economists are often criticized for explaining today why their predictions of yester-year did not come true. Mr. Oneil, however, and Goldman’s in general tend to always have the right read on what is going on out there, and they put their money where their mouth is with more success than virtually any competitor.

  So when Mr. ONeil said in 2008 (two years after this video) that India should find a way to boost foreign direct investment I’m glad they listened, and I hope they continue to focus on this, although I believe that if the trend as of late continues, they won’t have to do much petitioning for foreign investments as we American investors are desperately seeking wells outside of America and China which might not have dried up already.

• 9. Yuxiang Gao  |  March 1st, 2010 at 1:52 pm

  In China, the government has a long-term plan called every 5-years plan. Basically, we use 5-years time period as a milestone. For every 5 years, we have a clear goal.
  In this plan, they predicted that the country’s modernization process will be upgraded in three stages to achieve this goal.
  In the middle of this century, China will become a “moderately developed country” instead of simply remaining as a “primarily developed one.”
  Around 2080, persistent economic growth will enable China to become a “developed country” and then to be in front of the world’s most industrialized countries within the next two decades, the experts and scholars say.
  Alex mentioned that depending on his own simplified analysis of GDP growth rate, the US grows continuously at a rate of 3% and China at 10% per year, China will have a larger GDP around 2025.
  Well, I think GDP is not good measurement, from what I know, a lot of companies put their heavy pollution process in BRICs, this means the Green GDP is much less than GDP, so the time for these countries to achieve the goal will be longer.

• 10. Michael Minasian  |  March 5th, 2010 at 8:00 pm

  It is interesting to see some insight from someone from Brazil, and someone from China. It seems like it would be valuable to have Hemanth chime in here, as well as someone from Russia?

  It does seem to me that Russia’s inclusion in this discussion is largely due to it’s vast size and resources available for consumption. There is no question as to the rise of China and India.

  I am less sure about Brazil. I am not hugely familiar with their economics. I know that they have one of the worlds largest populations, and a fairly large amount of land. What is their resource situation like? Are they poised to be a manufacturing powerhouse anytime soon?

• 11. Jeff  |  March 18th, 2010 at 2:51 pm

  Looking at the countries that make up the BRIC’s, my view, like Alex, is that Brazil and Russia won’t grow at the same rate as India and China. Both India and China seem to have their sites set on growing their way into “first world” economy’s, where I don’t see the same impetus from Brazil or Russia. How many products have you purchased from Brazil or Russia in the past month? China or India?
  I think the growth projections are also optimistic given the size of the pollution problems and the cost of resources. I agree that energy is indeed going to be strong in the future, but the acquisition of energy may well the limiting factor for growth.
  I am optimistic more about China’s ability to overcome the energy obstacle than India at the moment because of enormous amount of money and effort they are putting ito their “green” economy.

• 12. Michael Harroch  |  March 18th, 2010 at 3:37 pm

  In the last twenty years Russia has gone through its most radical cultural and economical transformation since the Bolshevik revolution in 1917. During my undergraduate career, I was lucky enough to learn under a Russian Sociologist who briefly taught at Cal Poly. He explained that Russia had now become the most capitalistic nation in the world. Since the implosion of the Soviet Union there has been an absolute lack of regulation in the economical and financial spheres, making Russia the 21st century’s ultimate laissez-faire country.
  I am very interested to see how Russia evolves in the near future.

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