Submitted By: Chris Arena

Poking around the China Daily website, an English version of China’s biggest news paper publication, one article in particular jumped off the screen: “West Has Nothing to Fear From Talks,” which obviously means that something is to be feared.

The article describes how Russia, India, and China will be holding a conference on February 14, that’s right ladies Valentines Day, to discuss international issues and among other things, oil. Interesting. I continued to scroll the China Daily home page until I came across an article titled “Strategic Oil Reserve Begins Operation in China.” How convenient that on the same day that China begins strategically storing oil to the tune of 150 million barrels, China announces the scheduling of international meetings to discuss oil imports. A quick Google search later and I come upon an article from the India Daily titled “Putin Leads BRIC Alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and Plays Oil Trump Card.” The article was published in January of 2005, but highlights the importance of international politics, oil, energy and the fight over it.

The Conspiracy: Is China creating its own alliance of oil producing countries to feed its growth, which will eventually, by market forces, be pushed against the United States oil alliances with the Middle East (if you can call them that)? Do I see a new high stakes East vs. West type conflict on the horizon over oil instead of nuclear weapons? Someone please prove me wrong. In a world where oil and energy is king, are the international super powers picking sides? Is China not doing what the United States has done for the past two decades in the Middle East? Your thoughts?

Kind of. I guess.

True, in earlier posts I said that I try to stay away from intractable issues relating to China where I can add little or nothing new to the debate (e.g., China - Taiwan, peasants rioting in the countryside, etc.). Then I read The View From Taiwan blog about China scholar/journalist James Mann’s testimony before a U.S. government panel on U.S. China relations, and I thought what he had to say was something new.

His basic argument: the US should stop assuming that China will move forward politically and become more open due to its economic progress, and instead plan for the contingency that China’s growth will NOT move it toward democracy. Its current autocratic state may very well be with the world community for a long time.

He must love the Talking Heads as much as I do, as his congressional testimony sounds like that killer line (”Same As It Ever Was …”) from one of their many hits, Once in a Lifetime.