The China Fantasy
March 16th, 2007
Several weekends ago I finished a good book that recently came out by James Mann called The China Fantasy: How Our Leaders Explain Away Chinese Repression.
I very much enjoyed this book. Roughly 144 pages (hardcover version) and a pretty quick read. It has made me rethink some of my own views and biases toward China, both for and against. I recommend you consider reading it for your Spring quarter book review. I have also previously blogged on this book and a related topic (Rule of Law or Rule by Law?). The chapter where he applies his theory to the upcoming Beijing summer Olympics and how China may present itself to the world is particularly good and insightful — it provides a unique lens that can’t help but impact how I will view, see and interpret the upcoming inevitable Chinese (and Western) advertising and marketing of the Olympics, Beijing, and China.
Below are two book reviews that might help you decide whether to buy the book and read it:
From The New York Times:
In The China Fantasy, bestselling author James Mann examines the evolution of American policy toward China and asks, Does it make sense? What are our ideas and hidden assumptions about China? In this vigorous look at China’s political evolution and its future, Mann explores two scenarios popular among the policy elite. The ‘Soothing Scenario’ contends that the successful spread of capitalism will gradually bring about a development of democratic institutions, free elections, independent judiciary, and a progressive human rights policy. In the ‘Upheaval Scenario’, the contradictions in Chinese society between rich and poor, between cities and the countryside, and between the openness of the economy and the unyielding Leninist system will eventually lead to a revolution, chaos, or collapse.
Against this backdrop, Mann poses a ‘third scenario’ and asks, What will happen if Chinese capitalism continues to evolve and expand but the government fails to liberalize? What then and why should this third scenario matter to Americans? Mann explores this alternate possibility and—in this must-read book for anyone interested in international politics—offers a startling vision of our future with China that will have a profound impact for decades to come.
From The Washington Post’s BookWorld
Reviewed by Margaret MacMillan (University of Toronto History Professor)
James Mann is a distinguished journalist and historian who covered China for the Los Angeles Times; his 1999 book, About Face, was a first-rate account of the troubled path of U.S.-Chinese relations after President Richard M. Nixon’s decision to open contacts with the communist government, and his 2004 bestseller, Rise of the Vulcans, explored President Bush’s war cabinet. In The China Fantasy, he now adds polemicist to his resume.
As this angry, lively little book makes clear, Mann has had enough! His main target is all those American policymakers — aided and abetted by big business, the media and Beltway think tanks — who have sold a bill of goods to the American people. Since Nixon first made his historic trip to Beijing in 1972, Mann charges, American elites have dispensed soothing and dangerously misleading nostrums to the public. Yes, China under the control of the Communist Party is somewhat authoritarian — even, if you want to be rude, a totalitarian state. But that state of affairs, Americans are reassured, can’t last forever. At some point, perhaps quite soon, China’s dramatic economic development will inevitably lead to democracy as its growing middle class demands more rights and freedoms. Meanwhile, and confusingly, comes a set of warnings that China is more fragile than it seems and that if we don’t all handle it with kid gloves, it could collapse into chaos and civil war, as it has done so often before.
Consequently, Mann argues, foreign critics of China’s human rights abuses are told not to be so outspoken. After all, there is no point in hurting Chinese feelings or making the Chinese authorities dig in their heels. Mann is particularly scathing about what he describes as the “Lexicon of Dismissal.” Criticism of China is dismissed as “bashing,” “provocative” or “anti-China” (a favorite of the Chinese themselves), and any such censure always runs the risk of turning China into an enemy.
In his anger over this muzzling trend, Mann comes close to seeing a conspiracy by well-meaning but self-serving American elites — with, of course, the happy acquiescence of the Chinese communists — to keep the United States investing in and trading with China.
The China Fantasy raises an awkward and important question: What if there is a third alternative between the rise of democracy and the collapse of China’s political order? What if that alternative is the survival of the one-party state, with all its apparatus of control and repression? In an era when capitalists can join the party built by Mao, the Chinese communists have already shown how adept they are at changing their spots. What would it mean for the United States — and, indeed, the world — if 20 or 30 years from now a much richer and more powerful China proved to be every bit as authoritarian a state as it is today? What if that China were one in which the middle classes decided, much as they did in Hitler’s Germany, to opt for stability and prosperity over democracy?
Mann thinks that scenario highly likely, even if he does not share the alarmist view now taking root in some Washington circles that China is going to challenge the United States militarily. His concern is both that an undemocratic China is bad for the Chinese themselves and that it will be bad for the world, giving comfort and even support to other unsavory regimes as it already does to that of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe. What seems to outrage him most, though, is that the American people are going to go on being deceived.
Like all good polemics, this one raises more questions than it answers. Can the Chinese Communist Party, which now numbers some 70 million people, really be as monolithic or as cunning as he suggests? Is the American establishment really of one mind on China? Is there no possibility of the Chinese middle classes, or at least part of them, joining forces with the country’s long-suffering peasants to push for greater democracy? We will have to wait and see, but, in the meantime, Mann has done a fine job of making sure that we won’t do so complacently.
See also this China Law Blog post (click here) on the this book. And, see also this very recent and relevant Wall Street Journal article to Mann’s book, where two prominent economists debate the following question that has less than a clear cut answer: Is Democracy the Best Setting for Strong Economic Growth?
Entry Filed under: Pre-Departure, Beijing, China, Misc.
45 Comments Add your own
1. Angie Q. Dip | December 17th, 2007 at 8:06 pm
I agree with ChinaLawBlog.com that I think China will eventually slowly become more democratic, since according to the NY Times article, Rivals on Legal Tightrope Seek to Expand Freedoms in China, China’s top leaders “have promised to conform to human rights norms and to run the country ‘according to law’” in order to attract foreign investment and make the country a respected world power. If they really want to make the country a respected world power, I think they would ultimately give in to more freedom and more rights to the people of China to make the country look more ethical and more respectable of human rights in the long, long run. I agree with Ed Glaeser from the WSJ article, Is Democracy the Best Setting for Strong Economic Growth?, that education helps to support democracy, even though as Daron Acemoglu says, this does not necessarily mean more education automatically leads to more democracy. Although many of us would like to see China be more democratic, we need to understand that this probably would never happen, and if it does, it would not take place until a very, very long time.
2. Robyn Bowie | December 19th, 2007 at 10:49 pm
James Mann’s book sounds very interesting. From what I have read about China I would have to agree with him. China does not seem to be on any path towards Democracy any time soon. So perhaps we will see scenario three; I think it is likely. In fact, according to the book I am reading right now, River Town by Peter Hessler, some Chinese already consider their country to be a democracy. In the book, Hessler is a English teacher with the Peace Corps and he writes of his many conversations with local Chinese from the city of Fuling. Many of them argue that China is already a democracy even though it is run by one party.
At this point, they don’t need democracy. I know it sounds crazy to say as an American, but it’s true. Their economy is booming and no one is to say that becoming a democracy will help. According to the WSJ article Robert Barro actually found it may slow down their economy. I certainly could see this as a possibility. After all in a democracy, people discuss and give their opinion and vote before anything gets done, while in China things get done much quicker. If a road needs to be built it is built without much discussion. Whether that is good or bad is not the point. China may someday become democratic, but I’m not going to hold my breath.
3. Tai Massion | January 1st, 2008 at 2:15 pm
In all cases must a country give up stability and prosperity for democracy? Why can’t China grow and evolve into an alternative state- one we can’t “label”? Why would a change have to be chaotic or end up exactly like America? Why do we think that what we are doing is the best answer to how a country should be run? I think there are a lot of things wrong with America- there are poor people here, there are human rights abuses here, and there is pollution and corrupt government here. Why are we trying to export our “solution” worldwide? Why can’t China be allowed to figure it out on its own? America fears China will stop providing us with cheap goods/labor, that they will raise their currency and human rights violations will continue or worsen. There is also the possibility of a Chinese military strength above that of the US.
In the short-run really it’s self-serving for America to be submissive to China- we want their labor at a cost that is well bellow what it is worth. Is democracy good for an economy? It seems the leaders and the people have a lot to do with economic growth and democracy is just a small part of the answer.
4. Frank Wallace | January 22nd, 2008 at 1:24 am
This sounds like a very interesting book, and the review by the NY Times has intrigued me. I will look into possibly acquiring it for one of the future book reviews. Given the three scenarios in the book, I would have to hope for the Soothing Scenario to take place because it’s the safest and would be the best for the world. Unfortunately, Mann thinks (and so does Robyn) the third scenario will occur which scares me and makes the future seem unsure. I like the fact that Mann raises more questions than he answers (just as Tai did) because it is good to get these important questions out there on the table so people can start looking at them and trying to address them, but maybe only time will be able to answer them.
5. Amy Linker | January 25th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
Only time will tell what will happen with China in relation to their economy and political practices. I hope that they will become more liberal and give their citizens more rights and freedom. But who is to say that they will fail if they do not. There have been many successful economies ruled by different forms of government throughout history. I believe in democracy but that does not mean that it is the only form of government that provides economic and social prosperity.
Mann’s book sounds interesting. It is important to look at all the possible prospects that may occur in China’s future. This will help them and help us help them if disaster strikes.
I do believe that China will probably become more democratic. In the Wall Street Journal Daron Acemoglu states, “I’m a big believer in the value of human capital. Better-educated people are more productive, better citizens.” I agree with this statement. The key to China’s success is education. The question is will China be able to educate its people properly with so much censorship? Will it be necessary to switch to a more democratic style of government to provide a well rounded educated population?
6. Brandi Eng-Rohrbach | January 25th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
Democracy and capitalism as of late are always assumed to be intertwined. Is China moving towards democracy? I think there is signs that it is indeed gradually moving towards it. See this other post on our blog. I think this book sounds very interesting because it is always assumed that China will take one of the first two paths describe. This assumes that at some point authoritarianism and capitalism can no longer maintain an effective synergy.
Mann is suggesting that this may not be true in the short run. Is it possible that authoritarianism will just continue to coexist with communism at least for the not too distant future? This is a very intriguing and important question due to the various ramifications it may have.
It would seem to me that as long as China is still developing and not yet fully developed this could be possible. China is able to develop so quickly largely due to the efficiency of authoritarianism over democracy to get things done. This is contrasted to India where democracy is slowing the speed at which they are developing. This is largely because democracy takes longer to get things done but usually they things that are done are better products. I mean this even happens in smaller groups. A consensus method results in better decisions but it takes longer than one where just one person is the decision maker.
7. Nick Miura | February 5th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
I read Mann’s book last summer and at the time found it very intriguing. Every other book I’ve read assumes that China will either move towards a democracy or collapse. I think Mann has a very strong point that neither might happen, but I do think he goes a bit overboard with his bleak outlook.
The communist party in China is very entrenched, and from what I can tell, very smart. They realize China has a rough history with regime changes and political uprisings; however, they are protecting themselves from these by improving people’s lives. The communist party has done a brilliant job in destroying Chinese culture, while at the same time, building a grand Chinese infrastructure. What this means is that Chinese people are not looking back towards their past and their ancestors, rather looking ahead at future opportunity. In short, the Chinese government is giving hundred-millions of people hope. Though that hope comes with a price, as long as there is hope, there will be no revolt, no uprising. The communist party has a thirty year plan for goodness sake. They are not going to endanger their rule by giving the people too many rights. This also explains the continual growth in China. The economy has to grow at an extraordinary pace to give all these people hope.
Getting back to the question, is a democracy better than other forms of government for enabling growth. I feel that the type of government is irrelevant. What matters is if the government is motivated spur growth. The Chinese government is very motivated, because if they don’t there will be a revolution. The American government is less motivated, in my opinion, because of the existence of special interest groups. Our government could easily spur growth by investing in more infrastructure (especially more eco-friendly, sustainable infrastructure) and providing tax-breaks to companies pushing the edge in innovation; however, they don’t because it would most likely hurt existing business (especially oil tycoons).
I don’t see China moving to a democracy anytime soon because no one is in a position to make them change. Is this so bad though? Mann argues that China might spread communist ideals and force the world to turn away at human rights abuses. I don’t think this will be the case, simply because China is very content being China. They want recognition for themselves. If they go out and start supporting other communist regimes and publicly tolerate human rights violations, the whole world will shine a negative spotlight on China, which is something they definitely don’t want. Just look at the olympics and what they are spinning for PR for proof.
8. Pierre Michael | February 17th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
I find it inevitable that China will end up in the “Upheaval Scenario.” I also agree with Ed Glaeser:
“If you put enough smart people together, they’ll figure out how to govern themselves and gravitate towards democracy.”
The Chinese people have already had a taste of revolt and revolution; look at Tiananmen. People are becoming more educated, making more money and will inevitably be exposed to liberties that are foreign to them. Although Google has been proactive in abetting the Chinese government in censorship, information will undoubtedly be leaked. It is only a short matter of time before the masses become aware of things like freedom of speech and freedom of press. Foreign movies and internet sources will be this gateway. With the tank man as a role model people are bound to stand up for what they believe to be better. You can’t convince 1.3 billion that authoritarianism is the best way to rule, some will definitely be opposed. So, sooner than you think (less than 20 years), in my opinion, a civil war will inevitably erupt in China; and no there is no way of bringing about change peaceable. Not to say that the end result will be democracy, but it will be different than what stands today.
9. Simeon Trieu | February 19th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
I think China will stay a communist (if you can call them that) state. However, I do think that they will become more communist in nature. China, as a communist state, does not officially embrace capitalism. However, we see more and more that they are embracing it in spirit. They call it “Socialism with Chinese characteristics”. If that sounds ridiculous to you, then you’re not alone. Chalk it up to saving face. Here’s an often heard joke:
Presidents Bill Clinton, Boris Yeltsin and Jiang Zemin are each driving down a road in three separate cars. They approach an intersection, and Bill Clinton turns right without signaling. Boris Yeltsin does the same. But Jiang Zemin hesitates and asks his passenger, Deng Xiaoping, “Which way should I turn?” Deng replies, “Signal left, go right.”
China will always appear to have a face of communism, whether they are communist or not. However, their policies will move more towards a democracy (or at least appear to be democratic). Some might say that America is democratic in government but communist in nature.The Chinese are artists in hiding true intentions, as evidenced even in the ambiguity of the Chinese language itself. They have a people’s congress, but it only meets once a year. I’m not too sure if that will change, even if they meet more often. The party leaders are still in control, not the people.
The issue of whether China is a democracy or not is less important than the issue of whether any chosen form of government is going to work well there. Ed Glaeser’s comments on the Wall Street Journal indicate that “Rich countries are stable democracies.” However, that doesn’t mean that only democratic countries are rich countries. Glaeser is careful in wording, as to note that this is more speculation based on current world powers rather than on scientific study. Critics continually ignore one crucial element of China: its massive population. They affect and change so much in terms of what government would work well (see my comment on Government Promises and 2008 Olympics). Many do not even know that China has flirted with democracy in the past (see Chinese history on Sun Yat Sen) and utterly failed. What has evolved in China is communism. It’s what works.
10. Dena Malloy | February 19th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
In todays news, Fidel Castro has resigned the presidency of Cuba. Our embargo has and will hurt Cuba economically, but it certainly is not making Cuba more free. Shall we repeat the same mistake with China? I don’t believe our government or businesses should condone human rights abuses but complete withdrawal will not help either. I think in Cuba, the reason that Castro had such power is that he made America the enemy. Why rebel against the government when it is America that is causing your pain? I agree with Pierre, if the Chinese government does not eventually open up, there will be upheaval.
11. Catriona Banks-Orosco | February 20th, 2008 at 11:02 pm
It is interesting to consider a third scenario for China. Because we live in a democratic society and consider ourselves to have a better standard of living than many people of the world, we inherently assume our political model is the best for the whole world. I think the key is developing an educated society and letting them choose the direction in which they want to be governed. The idea of the US allowing for creative destruction is intriguing to me and I think the image is very valid. If the concern is long term economic growth, then I think allowing creative destruction is essential for growth and prosperity. Being allowed to build a better mousetrap or a completely new one is motivating. This creative freedom will be necessary in China to continue its growth.
12. Jesse Bilsten | February 21st, 2008 at 2:05 pm
I tend to lean towards Tai’s view point on this issue. I think each country should be allowed to let the government that best suits them be established. In all cases when a democracy was wanted, it was instated either through civil war or through constant revolts.
I also agree with both economists on different points: that neither democracy or eduction is really linked to economic success. I would say that regulated competition and liberty to pursue that competition in business will lead to economic success. As we can see in China today, whether you restrict personal freedoms is irrelevant. If you restrict business liberties, then you see economic stagnation. Obviously it can’t be lawless as monopolies are not good for the economy. But a laws and regulations that encourage competition and business are good, especially if they promote economic liberty.
13. FOARP | February 22nd, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Failed policy towards China? A great companion piece to the US’s faild policies towards Cuba and Iran, its total failure to cash in on the genuine goodwill that a lot of Russians felt towards the west after 1991, its failure in Vietnam, its disasterous policies in central and southern America, its alienation of ‘old’ Europe etc. etc.
America’s acheivements between 1945 and 1999 are not to be sneered at - it secured western Europe and Japan for democracy, it rescued Korea from invasion, it lead coalitions to liberate Kuwait and Kosovo - but Isn’t it time for American politicians to admit that it would be much better served a policy of enlightened self-interest? Or is that what is happening towards China already?
As for China becoming democratic - I feel that it would take a major rupture or strain apon the Chinese body-politic to acheive this - something like the way in which WWI brought about the collapse of the German, Austro-Hungarian and Russian Empires. A situation in which the dismay and outrage at the incompetence of their government and at their powerlessness to effect the direction of the Chinese ship of state leads the Chinese people to attempt to seize power from the communists.
@Angie Q. Dip - countries do not slowly become democratic except over extremely long periods - such as the UK’s march from a situation where fewer than one-in-twenty could vote at the start of the 18th century to where all men and women over the age of 21 could vote in 1929. China is not even on the path to democracy right now - there is no process by which power is being handed over. The powers weilded by party members and the proportion of the population that they make up has not actually changed significantly since 1979.
@Robyn - Peter Hessler was talking to university students, people who in the main are at the level of social development that most British people reach by the time they are 13/14 years old. Students parrot the party line on China being a democracy because that is what they are trained to do. Not from any great level of belief - I doubt many of them could define democracy. I have not met anyone over 25 years old in China who was actually able to say that they believed China was a democracy with a straight face. All the same, many of them are worried that China would fall apart if it moved to democratic rule, they may even be right.
@Tai - there is, of course, the risk that China may start to export its way of doing things, in fact some people say this is what is already starting to happen - see Burma and the Sudan.
@Brandi Eng-Rohrbach - Other countries have managed to create a sort of synergy or accomodation of authoritarian rule with democratic institutions, the most notable one being the German Empire from 1871-1919. However the stresses in herent in such a system almost always tears them apart unless they are small enough that stable governance and economic growth is the only thing on the populations mind (like Singapore).
14. Ryan Moore | February 24th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
I would have to echo Nick Miura’s sentiment on this issue. I also believe that Mann’s ‘third scenario’ will play out. The communist party in China is not going anywhere. China’s government has a strong hold on its citizens and would be quick to act on the first signs of unrest or organization of its working classes. Even an event as significant as Tienanmen has been erased from the minds of Chinese citizens in just a few years. As long as the government can provide hope of a better quality of life for its lower and middle classes, these citizens will continue to be subservient. I believe that the level of economic growth China is experiencing is directly due to its form of government. Less red tape, less bureaucracy, just a goal to achieve fast and continual economic growth. Look at our county (San Luis Obispo) and the years of voting and petitions and lawsuits just to get one development approved (The Dalidio Project). When people have a say, they can throw a significant monkey wrench into economic growth. When they don’t, economies grow like China’s has. As long as middle and peasant classes in China have even the faintest glimpse of hope, as they undoubtedly do whenever they see pictures of, visit, or hear stories about the great cities that are being built in eastern China, they will continue to avoid upheaval in the hopes that one day Chinas prosperity will trickle down to them or their children. What will this ultimately for the US? That it is possible to have capitalism without democracy.
15. Rob Belloni | February 29th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
This has been the hardest response to make for me thus far. I don’t feel qualified to state an opinion on what will happen with China in the future in regards to democracy. My gut says that it’s inevitable. But I don’t know what the Chinese people think. What do they say to each other behind closed doors? Do they hate the government, or love it in some kind of Stockholm Syndrome scenario?
Then I get off on tangential lines of thought. Like, what if some millenial generation 22 year old is elected president in 2040, and they don’t want to hurt anyone’s feelings over there in China. So they lather on some praise, maybe drop a friendly note on the PRC’s MySpace page… What if they just don’t have the guts any more to have uncomfortable conversations about things like human rights and democracy? BEEP - Oh there’s another text message hold on…
What if the U.S. reverts back to isolationist policies as a reaction to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? Maybe the country will decide that if we are just nice and friendly toward everyone - they will place nice too and not try to do nasty little things like take over Kuwait and blow up the World Trade Center buildings. Obama is doing well in the primaries…
That line of thought makes me think that China won’t just fall in to democracy as part of some natural process. But if 100 million Chinese middle-class get a whiff of what democracy is really about, might they not be compelled to rebel? What if they all realize there is more to life than just hard work to send money back to Mom and Dad. Oh wait.. we learned that the Little Emperors are already starting to think that way…
Conclusion: I just don’t know.
16. Deanna Haskell | March 2nd, 2008 at 4:40 pm
I agree with Rob in that I do not feel qualified to say whether or not China will become a democratic state. However, it seems that as the Chinese educate their people, they will become aware of what could be and rebel. In the past, Chinese governments have been overtaken by rebelious citizens. However, the government is better armed now and could probably crush any rebellion and then censor the media so that people do not even know it happened. It is really hard for me to even imagine what will happen in China. I think that the global economy and pressures from other countries to reform some of their policies will greatly impact China. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out, but I think that it is very difficult to predict.
17. David Zarcone | March 4th, 2008 at 12:30 am
Mann brings some very interesting questions to the table. I mean I always sort of assumed that China would one day change and democratize just as easy as that. But that definately does not seem to be the case. Now that I have been constantly studying and participating in these blogs on China, I am beginning to see no clear future in sight. China does not seem to need democracy with their economy constantly skyrocketing. However, the third scenario that Mann brings up is quite scary. In the years down the line if China stays authoritarian yet becomes much more powerful and richer, this could be bad new for us. I think the comparison to Hitler’s Germany was the most powerful expression.
18. Shasta Palmer | March 4th, 2008 at 2:13 am
There are always different ideas of what could happen , or should happen. In this case my preferred idea is that China slowly become more democratic. I don’t like the idea that there would be chaos over there, or the idea that they would try and challenge our military. Both of those sound like many deaths, pain and suffering. However, all of these are still options of things that could happen and they should not be discarded as impossible.
19. Witold Sadowski | March 4th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
It’s hard to say if/when China will become democratic, especially while never been, talked, or walked among the people there, or even really having a grasp of how the system really works. However, I believe that as long as money is to be made, people will not rebel against the system. I could see the poor in the country banding to fight for democracy… but it’s difficult to fight without a weapon – both in strength or political backing.
From what I’ve learned so far, it looks like the government there has done a pretty good job with controlling the population and keeping everyone in check… maybe if they give everyone a jumbo mortgage, a car loan, and charge outrageous amounts for healthcare insurance, then the average person will never have the time to rebel without getting completely screwed.
20. Kyle Tripp | March 6th, 2008 at 12:27 am
This book seems interesting. It seem that China has a history of the upheaval scenario. When we had the speaker a while back that was talking about how in China’s history each dynasty ends with a overthrow of the current emperor. I think the soothing scenario probably wont happen any time soon. There are many possibilities for China’s future and it looks like this book takes a crack a few of these possibilities. China will defiantly be growing as a country, but I feel that China won’t be changing it’s government any time soon.
21. Matt Fencl | March 6th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
It’s tough for me to believe in the likelihood of Mann’s “third scenario” as he describes it. I certainly think that the current communist government is going to remain in power for some time…possibly for the next several decades. However, I just can’t ignore the China’s history of violent overthrows. If history has taught us anything its that it repeats itself. Every dynasty in Chinese history ended with a bloody overthrow and I just can’t see any reason why the current government will be the exception rather than the rule.
As Americans, or better yet, good stewards of the earth, we shouldn’t be praying for China to become a democratic state at the expense of bloodshed. Maybe China will continue to evolve into a world superpower. If that happens, hopefully our political leaders will work to maintain a peaceful relationship because our business leaders have been doing it for years.
22. Darold Parsons | March 8th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
I have actually thought about the question on whether China will become democratic or not. Before I did any research I thought that China would for sure cave and become a democratic nation. I knew of Chinas bloody history, their former revolts, and Tiananmen. I also had the preconceived notion that all communist party systems have failed. I even thought that with continual interaction with people of other nations they would learn of democracy and human rights through word of mouth and eventually want them for themselves. All these things led me to believe that our generation would see the fall of the China communist nation and the start of a democratic one.
But then I thought about it some more. China is prospering. People are making money. The government has controlled bloody revolts in the past. They have control of the information. Maybe the Chinese government is here to stay. Maybe Mann’s third scenario will occur.
Needless to say, I have no idea what will happen. I think I will have to look into this subject a little more and possibly read this book.
23. Jeff Mohr | March 9th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Before studying China in-depth, all I heard was about how bad communism was and how China needs to be converted into a democracy. I disagree. While there are many issues that need to be resolved, I think the current system is necessary for China to maintain their current development. Far too much inequity exists in China’s society for a peaceful democracy to exist. The leaders know this. History shows this. China is not the United States, nor is it India. Which brings up an excellent point, would India be better off if they had a powerful government to enact the necessary changes and build out the infrastructure? I can’t answer that question but know that India still has many of the same problems facing China. I think Mann’s third scenario is likely looking at where China wants to be in thirty years compared to where they are now.
24. Ashley Drum | March 9th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
This is a very hard post to make because I really don’t know what will happen with China’s political system. American’s obviously have a bias towards democracy and I feel that we are too quick to conclude that China would be better off with a similar system. The funny thing is that if China were to become a democracy, I am guessing we would see an influx of regulations set up that would prevent our companies from benefiting from their cheap labor. Look at the minimum wage in California… if that were passed in China, there would be a lot of companies jumping ship. I disagree with Mann in that an undemocratic China is hurting everyone. I agree that it is hurting the citizens of China because of their limited freedoms, but I would say that China’s lack of democracy is benefiting the US immensely. Of course, if our dependence on China continues to grow at such a rapid rate, their government will start having a lot of control on the US and that long-term thinking does pose a threat. This book does bring up some interesting points and I am intrigued to learn more.
25. Andria Greenlee | March 10th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
It is really difficult to make a solid argument for either scenario regarding whether or not China will become a democracy. If I had to guess I would argue that Mann’s “Third Scenario” is the most realistic hypothesis. China is experiencing massive success and the quality of life for its citizens is rising across classes due to what seems like unlimited opportunites. While I am sure many of these citizens would like a democratic China, they are not going to go out of their way to get it. The majority of Chinese citizens remember the struggles they faced only a few decades ago before China began to boom. I would think that these individuals don’t want “to rock the boat” in order to prevent the modest prosperity they have finally attained from being taken away from them.
26. Andrew Steen | March 10th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
That Wall Street Journal article was enlightening to read. It’s great to hear two experts argue intelligently.
It brings up a bunch of philosophical questions for me, including:
-If there is an educated public then there is a democracy?
-If there is a democracy then there is an educated public?
-An educated public equals a democracy?
-Is the desire to create a democracy driven by a basic instinct not to be oppressed?
-And what is education? Isn’t education relative? China was educated and they don’t have a democracy? What kind of education fosters a democracy?
I’ve thought about these for a while, but I am not educated enough to answer. And the two expert economists can’t even agree. So I guess time will tell.
27. Chris Kirk | March 10th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
I have struggled with the idea that China could continue to grow at such a rapid pace without a change in the structure of its government. Personally the conflict of interest of a communist party rule and a free market system seem like too big a hurdle to jump. It is amazing in retrospect that China is even in the position that it is today. My guess is that without a change in structure China will one day stall and growth will become impossible. When this is the case, China will realize that a democratic government is the only choice that it has to make. The interesting question to ask is how long will this process take? How will change come about? Will it come from the uprising of the poor in China or will diplomatic pressure from around the world force the change. Although I’m not sure China will ever reach the equivalent of Hitler’s Germany that is a scary thought.
28. Matt Sprecher | March 11th, 2008 at 1:21 am
This book sounds amazing. I recently finished my second book on China, and although I want to read a book on India I may be possessed to read this one for next quarter. Of all the scenarios the “soothing scenario” is the one which I WANT to happen, but I just cant be sure about that. I have seen some people above saying they thought it would be the “third scenario” and I may have to agree. Not that I want that to happen, but the way things have gone in the past in recently, I would argue that it is impossible to predict. I mean what future can you really predict about China at this point. With the censorship issues and thriving economic boom on two opposite sides of the spectrum, who is to say that giving democracy to China would be a good thing? Personally, I don’t think that China needs democracy, at this point. Somewhere down the road, Democracy is always the most logical choice for almost all countries (see church hill’s quote). I do agree with Chris’ blog comment above when he makes the prediction of an economic stand still in the future if they do not have a change in their political system. If no change occurs, I fear that it is inevitable.
29. Simone Michel | March 12th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Economic success does not particularly require a democracy, which some examples in Asia show. South Korea and Taiwan did not have a democracy according to our western ideals for a long period of time. Hence, the economic growth in these countries was remarkable. I think it is more important for an economy that politics set a good framework. Primarily, a stable market oriented system is necessary. Radical system changes can disturb an economy in the long-run, for example as it happened in the eastern European countries. A slow and controlled trend towards a free market economy might be a better choice for China.
Furthermore, the culture of a country has to allow fast changes in order to enable long-lasting growth. The people have to be able to adjust to a fast changing economy as well. I think this could be the case in China. Everywhere where Chinese had the opportunity to economize freely, wealth resulted. One good example is Taiwan, where the Chinese were able to create a blossoming industrial country from the nonsignificant country it was 40 years ago. Hong Kong has developed from a fisher town to a world metropolis in 100 years. The Chinese were able to develop a high economical dynamic all over the world, only the mainland China is left behind because the communism repressed the abilities of the people
30. Naomi Guy | March 13th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
While not a book I would normally be interested in, I’m glad to see new alternatives popping up. I get annoyed when people try to label situations as black and white, A or B. We can ponder the situation in China, and analyze it all we want, but only time will tell. Until that point, it is essential to look at all possibilities. There is little reason to believe China will either crumble or become democratic, where an infinite number of possibilities exist.
In the US, we like to believe a democracy is the only way to be successful. We are confident and powerful with our ideals. However, China has been a superpower in the past and have only recently showed some hint of democratic linings. I hope to see more books and articles written about other possibilities rather than argue if it will be A or B.
31. Mark Fairman | March 13th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Mann’s book and his various scenarios all seem enlightening, and definitely worth reading. I had very little to Chines history, especially politically, prior to this course. Although I am still very confused about the future for the political framework, I am starting to understand why they are being pulled in different directions. Everyone seems to have an agenda, whether it’s the middle-class, upper-class, communist or not. They all want to see this growth go in one direction or another. I’m not sure how I stand on the issue. Sure, democracy seems to work for us, but as I’ve seen through various wars, it doesn’t work for others. If communism is the means for which the overall prosperity of China as a nation continues to grow, then why not?
32. Chris White | March 13th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
China’s authoritarian style of government is definately an issue that is on the back of everyone’s mind, but it is something that no one really wants to confront at the moment. Both countries have far too much at stake economically for conflicts to arise between the two nations. But once the economic parity reaches equilibrium in the next decade or so and their strategic interests (oil, Taiwan, etc.) begin to conflict, there may be a rise in tensions. As China’s middle class grows, the country will continue to experience daily protests and socail unrest. But I do not know if these demonstrations are nuissance enough to overpower Communist China. I think eventually we need to start pressing China over its human rights issues if we want to continue to trade with them.
33. Glenn Hughes | March 14th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
We teach people that Democracy and Capitalism go hand in hand and that one is necessary for the other to prosper (At least that was what I was taught when I was young). However its plain to see that China is prospering despite the fact that they are under Communist rule running a capitalist economy. As a country experiencing this tremendous growth over the recent years I still wonder how they will manage to sustain the growth and stabilize it for years to come. The country is experiencing a great change in social demographics, with a rising middle class and more people moving in from the countryside. A shift in government policy at this point could potentially disrupt the current growth that they are experiencing. Things will need to evolve as the demographics change, however China has found something that works, and I wouldn’t blame them for not trying to fix something that is doing so well for them at the moment.
34. Steve Munio | March 15th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
This book has definitely sparked my interest. Many forcast China’s future according to many assumptions, however I too feel that there will be a very distinct turn of events in China’s near future. Many factors, the most critical of which are the vast economic disparity throughout the country will eventually boil over. This lack of representation of the millions of impoverished citizens, in combination with the incredible corruption and greed rampant throughout, is the recipe for inevitable changes. It may be too late to prevent these changes from coming violently.
35. Woon Lam "Justine" Wong | March 17th, 2008 at 10:59 am
These few days, the main news about China is the protests in Lhasa, the capital of Tibet. There is conflicting information on whether the Chinese soldiers used violence or not. Do you believe in the outsider information or the Central government’s information?
I found it hard to comment on this post at first, as I am not sure if the ‘Upheaval Scenario’ is stronger or the ‘third scenario’. I am pretty sure that the ‘Soothing Scenario’ is too far from reality, given what the government did to Tibet, and what I know about China.
When I think deeper about the Tank Man video and what happened to Tibet now, the upheaval scenario is actually taking place; however, can they achieve the ultimate “success” and become strong enough to overthrow the communist government?
I really doubt it. If you take a look to what happened after the Tiananmen Square protest (a real social upheaval), you can realize how much did the Chinese government do to cease the possibility to start another revolt from students. One main thing is the limited information for the next generations.
I recently talk to two friends in Cal Poly, who are same age as me and migrated from China to US a few years ago, and they did not know much about the Tiananmen Square protest. I born and raised up about 200 miles or less from where they live, and my sense of the world and knowledge about China is completely different from them. Even after they come to the US, they don’t really have the urge to know about the “reality” in China.
Regarding the above thought, I strongly agree with Nick’s comment (#7) that the Chinese government are really smart in protecting themselves by improving people’s life, and “The communist party has done a brilliant job in destroying Chinese culture, while at the same time, building a grand Chinese infrastructure.” Upheaval may happen in China, but the Chinese government is trying so hard to suppress them, even to the extend that destroys the rich Chinese cultural.
The ‘third scenario’ stands out most to me now, and I am looking forward to read this book to know more about his reasoning on this matter.
36. Gary Chou | March 17th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
I am proud to say that I am far more prepared to tackle these debates than six month ago when I entered this program. Perhaps it was the strategic planning of the order of these posts by Dr Carr, I have learned a lot about Chinese government and economy and even culture (that I did not know before) that I am able to weigh the debate between the two scenarios more fairly.
The more I know, actually, the less I know. I have learned a lot about why the capitalism in China would gradually help her change. Remember the bra city, the TAP city (ok that was once really really hilarious, when I showed to my girl friend, she laughed very very badly), the granite city, the light city, the TOILET city… and I also learn about its newly found zeal for judicial improvement.
At the same time we learn about the high pressure top down party dominance (from reading the 2 billions entrepreneurs), the “internal rule” from the court video, and the huge Gini coefficient (the gap between rich and poor http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient ).
I really am more informed to make a prediction, and at the same time, I am more than ever before more unsure about any prediction I made.
I remember a funny and thoughtful quote about learning:
When I receive my bachelor, I think I know EVERYTHING.
When I receive my master, I think I know NOTHING.
When I finally receive my PhD, I realize that neither does anyone know anything…
37. Adam WIndham | March 18th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
My personal feeling is that scenario three will be the most likely to occur. Although I don’t feel qualified to offer an opinion on this issue, it seems unlikely that the government will simply (or gradually) decide to be more democratic in nature. Scenario two is a little too extreme, I think the probability that all of China’s people will band together against the government in one giant upheaval is remote.
China has become a hybrid and its difficult to really say what they are or what will happen in the future. The government is entrenched in its communist ideals, yet it embraces the economic benefits of a “market” economy. Additionally, China’s people have seen the prosperity that comes from a more open and “free economy”, how long will it be until they want to government to be more “free”? As time goes on these two view points will become increasingly more opposed and intertwined and its hard to say exactly how China will respond to the situation. The book sounds very interesting and an important read for anyone considering doing business in China in the near future.
38. william jencks | March 19th, 2008 at 1:09 am
This is an interesting debate in that scenario three is the only one which offers a somewhat new idea – An authoritarian state that promotes a completely free market trade system. To my knowledge this has never happened before, which is why I think it will be the most probable outcome of the China situation. Something very new is happening in China, therefore something new will most likely be the outcome. What will this new superpower mean to America and the world? I have no idea.
39. Eric Kvilhaug | March 19th, 2008 at 7:52 pm
China will slowly become more and more democratic, western ways will influence the people until revolt is imminent. I do not believe it matters if China becomes more democratic or not, policy will determine the financial growth and a country wide well being. As we can see in our own country democracy has its flaws. Current policy seems to have our economy in the *******, looking at us as a model maybe democracy will be judged and portrayed as bad for business…….
40. Jesse Dundon | March 20th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
I think that I will read that book for next quarter’s book review. It sounds very interesting, especially in the context of this class, the blogs and articles we have been commenting on, and the other books that we have read. It is especially interesting when compared to the book China Modernizes. It seems that every other blog I comment on includes a mention of that book, and for a very good reason. The author covers a great deal of empirical evidence to suggest that democracy is not always the best choice for developing countries, and that many of these fail quite soon. It praises China for its growth and modernization of recent years, but also compares its human rights status on many levels. One of the conclusions that the author makes is that while China has been doing very well in human rights compared to other nations of similar per capita wealth, it still has a long way to go and should not be just let off the hook.
I have found it very interesting to read everybody’s comments, and see the different viewpoints and opinions of China. Some people I notice to change over the course of their comments (and education I suppose), and some people are remaining stoic in their beliefs. Some people seem very pro-China to the point of ignoring its obvious let downs, and others continue to point out the fact that China is authoritative, cruel to its citizens, and censoring all of the media which comes to us through these articles, videos, and blogs. We certainly do have to respect its history, and treat it very carefully because of its economic power (it would be foolish of us as a nation not to do so). However, we cannot let it off the hook, and must keep pressing the nation to treat its citizens with justice, despite its form of government.
41. Nicholas Dominguez | March 20th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
The China Fantasy sounds like one of the few books really trying to expand the discussion of todays international policies. I am ashamed to admit that I never fully ruminated over the third scenario Mann describes in his book. It could be that I have been brainwashed into thinking that capitalism cannot survive without democracy. If China were to stay a one-party state with sever restrictions on human rights while still becoming a economic and military super power it would be a balancing act like the world has never seen before. I still believe that the forces of democracy and or capitalism push each other to grow. Both come down to the desire for choice. Once a culture is exposed to that reality of choice the mentality changes.
I do not want to say Mann is wrong, he has probably done far more research than I have, but I see that third scenario as far less likely then he does.
42. David Dougherty | March 21st, 2008 at 12:34 am
Similar to other posts, I find myself at a loss when trying to comment on this topic. I will admit that I really have no idea what will happen in China. I had some issues following the WSJ discussion and could not access the china law blog. Since my background in politics and government is VERY limited, I do not feel that I can make a justified argument in favor of any scenario. I usually keep to myself when discussing these topics, as I don’t want to sound like an idiot for making incorrect assumptions or drawing unsupported conclusions. What I can say is that I will seriously consider reading this book for my spring book review, although I was looking forward to The Art of War.
43. Richard Ciesco | March 21st, 2008 at 1:59 am
Mann is trying to tackle a question that no one can answer but everyone would like to know. How will the growing Chinese economy affect it’s government and how? It is hard to imagine that the Chinese elite will allow their government to fall. They have already shown a number to time that they are not afraid to use military power o stop groups of people who appose them. So will the middle class become strong enough to over throw the government? Do you thing that the newly educated and elected officials with the idea of democracy could change to government from within? This is doubtful because once people get into power they will tend to do what ever it takes to stay there. Keeping with the one party system is one way that any official will keep power. The only way I think this one party system will be changed is through a violent uprising.
44. Nic Marlin | March 21st, 2008 at 12:42 pm
It sounds like an interesting book. China is growing rapidly, but I’m not sure how quickly the change to democracy will occur– if it ever does. I believe heavily in the kind of freedom that citizens in a democracy theoretically enjoy. I really don’t know how people over in China feel about the situation though. For the most part, what happens to the structure of their government will depend on the people and what they demand. I can see that people are embracing the capitalist system, and it seems like as private business and entrepreneurship gets stronger the people will demand democracy. Although, there is also the possibility that their current structure works for them. I don’t feel that it is fair to push democracy on them for the sake of democracy. If communism works for the people in China then let them have it. Hopefully I will get a better sense of this when I spend a couple weeks there.
45. Sarah Ybarra | March 21st, 2008 at 3:32 pm
I am definitely interested in reading this book. I am enjoying learning about China, especially since I do not know much about their government and am interested in learning more about its current state and its possible future. I don’t really feel like I know enough about this topic to provide a compelling reason for my choice, but I would go with scenario 3. I think that Chinese capitalism will continue to grow without causing the government to develop into a democracy. I think the government will continue to operate as it does now, regardless of economic growth. This is a difficult question and I do not have an answer. China appears to be doing just fine how they are now.
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