Comments on: The China Fantasy

By: Sarah Ybarra

Sarah Ybarra — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 23:32:52 +0000

I am definitely interested in reading this book. I am enjoying learning about China, especially since I do not know much about their government and am interested in learning more about its current state and its possible future. I don’t really feel like I know enough about this topic to provide a compelling reason for my choice, but I would go with scenario 3. I think that Chinese capitalism will continue to grow without causing the government to develop into a democracy. I think the government will continue to operate as it does now, regardless of economic growth. This is a difficult question and I do not have an answer. China appears to be doing just fine how they are now.

By: Nic Marlin

Nic Marlin — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 20:42:09 +0000

It sounds like an interesting book. China is growing rapidly, but I’m not sure how quickly the change to democracy will occur– if it ever does. I believe heavily in the kind of freedom that citizens in a democracy theoretically enjoy. I really don’t know how people over in China feel about the situation though. For the most part, what happens to the structure of their government will depend on the people and what they demand. I can see that people are embracing the capitalist system, and it seems like as private business and entrepreneurship gets stronger the people will demand democracy. Although, there is also the possibility that their current structure works for them. I don’t feel that it is fair to push democracy on them for the sake of democracy. If communism works for the people in China then let them have it. Hopefully I will get a better sense of this when I spend a couple weeks there.

By: Richard Ciesco

Richard Ciesco — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 09:59:02 +0000

Mann is trying to tackle a question that no one can answer but everyone would like to know. How will the growing Chinese economy affect it’s government and how? It is hard to imagine that the Chinese elite will allow their government to fall. They have already shown a number to time that they are not afraid to use military power o stop groups of people who appose them. So will the middle class become strong enough to over throw the government? Do you thing that the newly educated and elected officials with the idea of democracy could change to government from within? This is doubtful because once people get into power they will tend to do what ever it takes to stay there. Keeping with the one party system is one way that any official will keep power. The only way I think this one party system will be changed is through a violent uprising.

By: David Dougherty

David Dougherty — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 08:34:24 +0000

Similar to other posts, I find myself at a loss when trying to comment on this topic. I will admit that I really have no idea what will happen in China. I had some issues following the WSJ discussion and could not access the china law blog. Since my background in politics and government is VERY limited, I do not feel that I can make a justified argument in favor of any scenario. I usually keep to myself when discussing these topics, as I don’t want to sound like an idiot for making incorrect assumptions or drawing unsupported conclusions. What I can say is that I will seriously consider reading this book for my spring book review, although I was looking forward to The Art of War.

By: Nicholas Dominguez

Nicholas Dominguez — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 06:45:04 +0000

The China Fantasy sounds like one of the few books really trying to expand the discussion of todays international policies. I am ashamed to admit that I never fully ruminated over the third scenario Mann describes in his book. It could be that I have been brainwashed into thinking that capitalism cannot survive without democracy. If China were to stay a one-party state with sever restrictions on human rights while still becoming a economic and military super power it would be a balancing act like the world has never seen before. I still believe that the forces of democracy and or capitalism push each other to grow. Both come down to the desire for choice. Once a culture is exposed to that reality of choice the mentality changes.

I do not want to say Mann is wrong, he has probably done far more research than I have, but I see that third scenario as far less likely then he does.

By: Jesse Dundon

Jesse Dundon — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 04:16:12 +0000

I think that I will read that book for next quarter’s book review. It sounds very interesting, especially in the context of this class, the blogs and articles we have been commenting on, and the other books that we have read. It is especially interesting when compared to the book China Modernizes. It seems that every other blog I comment on includes a mention of that book, and for a very good reason. The author covers a great deal of empirical evidence to suggest that democracy is not always the best choice for developing countries, and that many of these fail quite soon. It praises China for its growth and modernization of recent years, but also compares its human rights status on many levels. One of the conclusions that the author makes is that while China has been doing very well in human rights compared to other nations of similar per capita wealth, it still has a long way to go and should not be just let off the hook.

I have found it very interesting to read everybody’s comments, and see the different viewpoints and opinions of China. Some people I notice to change over the course of their comments (and education I suppose), and some people are remaining stoic in their beliefs. Some people seem very pro-China to the point of ignoring its obvious let downs, and others continue to point out the fact that China is authoritative, cruel to its citizens, and censoring all of the media which comes to us through these articles, videos, and blogs. We certainly do have to respect its history, and treat it very carefully because of its economic power (it would be foolish of us as a nation not to do so). However, we cannot let it off the hook, and must keep pressing the nation to treat its citizens with justice, despite its form of government.

By: Eric Kvilhaug

Eric Kvilhaug — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 03:52:20 +0000

China will slowly become more and more democratic, western ways will influence the people until revolt is imminent. I do not believe it matters if China becomes more democratic or not, policy will determine the financial growth and a country wide well being. As we can see in our own country democracy has its flaws. Current policy seems to have our economy in the *******, looking at us as a model maybe democracy will be judged and portrayed as bad for business…….

By: william jencks

william jencks — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 09:09:20 +0000

This is an interesting debate in that scenario three is the only one which offers a somewhat new idea – An authoritarian state that promotes a completely free market trade system. To my knowledge this has never happened before, which is why I think it will be the most probable outcome of the China situation. Something very new is happening in China, therefore something new will most likely be the outcome. What will this new superpower mean to America and the world? I have no idea.

By: Adam WIndham

Adam WIndham — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 00:56:14 +0000

My personal feeling is that scenario three will be the most likely to occur. Although I don’t feel qualified to offer an opinion on this issue, it seems unlikely that the government will simply (or gradually) decide to be more democratic in nature. Scenario two is a little too extreme, I think the probability that all of China’s people will band together against the government in one giant upheaval is remote.

China has become a hybrid and its difficult to really say what they are or what will happen in the future. The government is entrenched in its communist ideals, yet it embraces the economic benefits of a “market” economy. Additionally, China’s people have seen the prosperity that comes from a more open and “free economy”, how long will it be until they want to government to be more “free”? As time goes on these two view points will become increasingly more opposed and intertwined and its hard to say exactly how China will respond to the situation. The book sounds very interesting and an important read for anyone considering doing business in China in the near future.

By: Gary Chou

Gary Chou — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 02:51:37 +0000

I am proud to say that I am far more prepared to tackle these debates than six month ago when I entered this program. Perhaps it was the strategic planning of the order of these posts by Dr Carr, I have learned a lot about Chinese government and economy and even culture (that I did not know before) that I am able to weigh the debate between the two scenarios more fairly.

The more I know, actually, the less I know. I have learned a lot about why the capitalism in China would gradually help her change. Remember the bra city, the TAP city (ok that was once really really hilarious, when I showed to my girl friend, she laughed very very badly), the granite city, the light city, the TOILET city… and I also learn about its newly found zeal for judicial improvement.

At the same time we learn about the high pressure top down party dominance (from reading the 2 billions entrepreneurs), the “internal rule” from the court video, and the huge Gini coefficient (the gap between rich and poor http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient ).

I really am more informed to make a prediction, and at the same time, I am more than ever before more unsure about any prediction I made.

I remember a funny and thoughtful quote about learning:

When I receive my bachelor, I think I know EVERYTHING.
When I receive my master, I think I know NOTHING.
When I finally receive my PhD, I realize that neither does anyone know anything…