Submitted By: Catriona Banks-Orosco

“When the US sneezes, do parts of the world get sick?” That was the question posed to us in International Business as we discussed how a slowdown in the US economy might affect other nations.

Recent articles in the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times [registration is free] describe a slow down in the economies of China and India. China’s growth is expected to slow by 2%, down to 9% this year. India’s growth will slow 1%, down to 8.7%. Not exactly stagnant, but still they’re both less than the double digit growth the countries have been experiencing over the past few years.

So, is the slow down in China and India directly tied to the economic slowdown in the US or simply the natural process of a growing economy? Does it indicate a larger problem? Or opportunity?

Exports have fallen in both countries. India is likely to keep their interest rates high to attract investors and to try to tame inflation. China’s imports outpaced exports for the last three months of 2007. As the value of the US dollar falls, imports cost us more, but suddenly our exports have a larger audience that can afford our products. China exports products to many nations, but the US market is known for its mass consumption. So could our slowdown in consumption, create the space necessary for China and India to consider longer term, environmental implications in future growth plans? The World Bank is hoping for just that. A slowdown will allow China to “recalibrate growth away from heavy industry in favour of consumption and services.” This would allow China to re-balance the economy away from resource intensive industries, reducing green house gas emissions and pollution. It would also position China to eventually become the world’s largest economy, surpassing the US in consumption, and buoying the global economy. Redirecting growth away from heavy industry won’t necessarily translate to environmental protection. But a transition to services and consumption could help lift a major portion of the population out of poverty. Heavy industry has not created many jobs. A transition to services and local consumption will create jobs for more people. As the overall level of income rises, the citizens of China are likely to begin to demand more protections, for themselves and their surroundings. Of course this won’t happen overnight. But history has shown that as populations are lifted out of poverty, they expect more. The same will hopefully be true in India, where the rise in incomes of some of its people has not been spread across its vast population.

I don’t fear the common cold, I don’t like it, but I’m not afraid of it. I let my kids dig in the dirt, wear shorts in the rain and wear themselves out. The logic is that it will increase the strength of their immune systems by allowing them to be exposed to regular germs in their environment. Maybe the slowdown in the US will have the same effect on the world economy. Many nations will be adversely affected in the short term. However, it could also force the world to take a breath, and consider future paths instead of simply plowing forward. Ideally all nations will gain an understanding of how to grow economies in a sustainable manner.

How do you see the US economic slowdown affecting the rest of the world? Could it be good for the world economy?