After our return from our Chindia trip (see my last post below), I took a break from blogging as I had come down with a serious case of blog burn out. I will try to crank it up again.

Let’s start with Russia.

If you follow the news, you are aware of the Russian-Georgian mess. Basic situation (greatly simplified) — ethnic Russians in Georgia wish to return to Mother Russia, the Georgians say “uh, I don’t think so” and send troops to discourage. Russia reacts by invading said territories with their military, thereby sending the Georgian military running for their lives and back from whence they came.

What do you see as the implications of all of this for China? For the USA? I have been thinking about this lately.

Here is what I see — numerous Chinese, as part of Chinese economic expansion, business opportunity and/or strategic Han integration by numbers, set up shop near the Russian border (and even across the Chinese-Russian border into Russia in some cases). Thus, along the Chinese-Russian border, a line viewed as unclear by some at various points, one can find a mix of Russians and Chinese, including on both sides of Mongolia.

If/when the ethnic Russians in or near these areas decide that they too, like their comrades in Georgia, don’t feel the love from the Chinese and wish to return to or strengthen their connection to Mother Russia, we likely see the Chinese do their usual knee jerk reaction to protect their beloved “sovereignty” and end continued “humiliation at the hand of foreign powers”, and like Georgia, send in their heavies to counter and discourage Russian flexing. Mother Russia then in turns send in their heavies to strike back and protect said ethic Russian from any threat. Then, we have two super powers (depending on how you define said term) pointing their toys, er, I mean their weapons at the other and the USA gets caught in the middle of this mess and comes in to try and broker things to calm the schoolyard down.

I don’t see how this recent stretching of Russian muscle can be good for the USA. I don’t see how this recent development can be is good for China, with the very long border it shares with Russia.

Your thoughts?

And is my read wrong, that so far the Chinese seem to be sitting on the sidelines re: the mess in Georgia? As least I have not seen or read much coming from them. Why not much from Beijing so far on this issue?

I welcome your insights on this topic. My disclaimer: I know virtually nothing about Russia.