What’s Good For Mother Russia’s Goose … May Not Be So Good For The USA Or China Gander
August 14th, 2008
After our return from our Chindia trip (see my last post below), I took a break from blogging as I had come down with a serious case of blog burn out. I will try to crank it up again.
Let’s start with Russia.
If you follow the news, you are aware of the Russian-Georgian mess. Basic situation (greatly simplified) — ethnic Russians in Georgia wish to return to Mother Russia, the Georgians say “uh, I don’t think so” and send troops to discourage. Russia reacts by invading said territories with their military, thereby sending the Georgian military running for their lives and back from whence they came.
What do you see as the implications of all of this for China? For the USA? I have been thinking about this lately.
Here is what I see — numerous Chinese, as part of Chinese economic expansion, business opportunity and/or strategic Han integration by numbers, set up shop near the Russian border (and even across the Chinese-Russian border into Russia in some cases). Thus, along the Chinese-Russian border, a line viewed as unclear by some at various points, one can find a mix of Russians and Chinese, including on both sides of Mongolia.
If/when the ethnic Russians in or near these areas decide that they too, like their comrades in Georgia, don’t feel the love from the Chinese and wish to return to or strengthen their connection to Mother Russia, we likely see the Chinese do their usual knee jerk reaction to protect their beloved “sovereignty” and end continued “humiliation at the hand of foreign powers”, and like Georgia, send in their heavies to counter and discourage Russian flexing. Mother Russia then in turns send in their heavies to strike back and protect said ethic Russian from any threat. Then, we have two super powers (depending on how you define said term) pointing their toys, er, I mean their weapons at the other and the USA gets caught in the middle of this mess and comes in to try and broker things to calm the schoolyard down.
I don’t see how this recent stretching of Russian muscle can be good for the USA. I don’t see how this recent development can be is good for China, with the very long border it shares with Russia.
Your thoughts?
And is my read wrong, that so far the Chinese seem to be sitting on the sidelines re: the mess in Georgia? As least I have not seen or read much coming from them. Why not much from Beijing so far on this issue?
I welcome your insights on this topic. My disclaimer: I know virtually nothing about Russia.
Entry Filed under: China
3 Comments Add your own
1. Onemanbandwidth | August 15th, 2008 at 4:51 am
On the silence first: A Japanese journalist asked why the moderator at the news conference after Irakli Tsirekidze of Georgia won the 90-kilogram men’s judo final the day before had refused to allow a question on the Georgia-Russia conflict. Wang answered with what has become a mantra of these Games that Rule 51.3 of the Olympic charter forbids the promotion of political agendas within Olympic venues.”
It actually extends outside the stadium : to remark on any political situation in any country right now would further inflame the already bored and story-starved reporters at the Games. I think the three T’s would get even more notice again.
Hong Kong TV did speak out last night and back-handed McCain (and don;’t shoot the messenger here as I hate war) by saying that any US declaration against Russia was hypocritical–especially coming from a man who legislatively sponsored one of two recent invasions by America.
I spent lunch today with a party secretary who once served in the Foreign Service in Africa for China. We talked openly about current affairs and he spoke with great first-hand authority about some issues. The baltic region only send in about 10% of China’s oil where Africa and the Middle East supply most of China’s huge import needs. Russia and China, though long allies, are still trying to figure out how to trust each other…
We have a greater interest in Georgia because of oil– it is not unlike our interest in Afghanistan or Iraq. We really don’t give a crap about autonomy for Georgia beyond that. We let hundreds of thousands die in Rwanda because you can’t drive a car on tea and bananas–not yet anyway.
China has the power to effect change but is consumed right now with the daunting task of keeping 30,000 reporters focused on the Olympics and not on politics. Give it a few weeks and China, hoping to increase imports from Russia and its neighbors, will sound- off. But, expect the US to get raked over the coals in the process.
2. Chris Carr | August 15th, 2008 at 8:15 am
Good info, Lonnie. Thanks for the check in.
3. Dan | August 17th, 2008 at 4:26 am
The issue between Russia and China is essentially the exact opposite. The issue is not so much Russians in areas controlled by China, but the very opposite: Chinese in areas (like the Russian Far East) controlled by Russia.
I think the real issue is how does this all relate to Tibet? Also, (and I raised this issue at the time as well), but can someone please explain to me how it is that we can reconcile Kosovo with the various other regions in the world seeking self-determination? What made/makes Kosovo so different?
Leave a Comment
Some HTML allowed:
<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>
Subscribe to the comments via RSS Feed