When we travel to China or India, two things are likely to happen. You will be legitimately and understandably shocked by the pollution in China and the poverty in India.
Re China: the blogosphere is full of heated debate re: what China and her development means for the environment and the rest of us.
On the one hand, if China follows the western pattern of energy consumption and lifestyle (as it lectures China on its bad development habits and how polluted it is), many feel that we are all pretty much screwed.
On the other hand, respected commentators like James Kynge are more optimistic. In his well received book, China Shakes the World: A Titan’s Rise and Troubled Future, Kynge points out that the earth simply cannot support 1.3 billion Chinese living like Americans so the Chinese and others will have no choice but to adopt different and better technologies, ways of living and consuming energy, and they will need to do so quickly, etc. The CCP leaders are not dummies and they know that stability in the country is key to their own survival so it will be in their political best interest to not adopt the western model of energy consumption as their wealth grows, simply because they likely can’t keep up with such demand and/or they can’t afford to pay for such a crazed energy shopping spree.
This Wall Street Journal article, Technology Levels Playing Field in Race to Market Electric Car, made me think of Kynge’s “the glass is more full than empty” view of how this may play out. Per this article, China is leading the field on this one.
Other examples of China leading, not following in this area:
– I recently met an entrepreneur couple in the Santa Barbara area who developed a new technology and system that would help load cars onto a moving train. The thought being that said system can help get cars off the road, give people more of an incentive to take the train, etc. They depressingly noted to me that nobody at the US Transportation Agency, Cal Trans, or in private industry had any interest in said system because (paraphrased) “things are as they are and there is no hope for any such technology to take off in the US as other ways of doing things and special interest groups are too entrenched.” Yet, the Chinese were willing to talk to them and the were close to entering a deal with a local or provincial Chinese government to test and develop said technology and system in China, where many of the rules have yet to be made and determined in this regard.
–Another example is that did you know that new cars sold in China must satisfy more stringent fuel exhaust standards than those sold in the US (or so a local auto dealer recently told me)?
So while these examples are a start, the reality is we need more of them and China still has a long way to go in this regard. I, with others, am hoping for the best but also bracing for the worst.
It will be up to the current generation, and our grad students in particular with their business training and expertise, to help or hinder how China and India develop in this regard. Clearly, on this issue, the environment and new technologies to minimize energy consumption, cooperation will be in everyone’s best interest. And think about how places like India and China can be testing grounds for new green and sustainable technologies that simply don’t have a chance to get off the ground here given our existing bad consumption and spending habits and existing rent seeking industries, government agencies and special interests groups seeking to maintain the status quo (see above WSJ article for Example A in this regard).
It is scary to think about the energy consumption and environmental damage of 1.3 billion Chinese living like Americans. The auto industry is one of those areas where major emission improvements are needed to ensure a green future. There is still a lot of room for improvements, but so far it seems like there has been tremendous progress in battery technology for electric cars and plug-in hybrids in the past ten years.
The auto industry and electric cars reminds me of the disruptive technologies that allowed the small start ups to become major players in the computer and tech industry. The current level playing field in the electric car industry is going to allow newcomers like BYD to go head to head with the big players like Toyota and GM. I cam across and interesting article by thegreencarwebsite.co.uk which stated “An agreement has been signed between China’s Ministry of Science and Technology and the US Department of Energy that will see the two countries collaborate on battery performance and testing as well as evaluating standards, methods and codes.†http://www.thegreencarwebsite.co.uk/blog/index.php/2008/12/13/china-and-us-form-green-car-partnership/
I’ve reached the point – as if my opinion were worth Jack – that America should let GM and Chrysler go into bankruptcy rather than continue to funnel them money. But first we should find a way to invest those billions into promising start ups – companies like BYD (only American versions). It’s like Thomas Friedman argues: we need to innovate! That’s our best chance to get out of this mess – not by throwing money at these blood sucking auto behemoths. If we spend all our capital (that we don’t even have) in order to save the status quo – rather than invest it in promising industries and innovative technologies – we’re shooting ourselves in the foot. Or worse. And then we might not have the chance to export green technologies to China. They’ll be doing it on their own.