Nuclear Arms in the Indian Subcontinent
A very important topic that should be included in any analysis of India is the effect of nuclear weapons in the region. Both India and Pakistan possess these weapons and the capacity to deliver them to the other country within ten minutes, tops. It is inevitable that if nuclear weapons were even deployed by one of the two countries, because of the close proximity of their citizens, both Pakistan and India would be dramatically affected.
In the event of war, both countries have pledged not to use nuclear weapons as a first resort. India, as the dominant military power and the victor of all three wars between itself and Pakistan, claims it would not use nuclear weapons preemptively (No-First-Use Policy). However, Pakistan will not take such a position. Pakistan covets its nuclear weapons dearly, as it should. India’s conventional military forces dwarf those of Pakistan, prompting Pakistan to view its own nuclear capabilities as the major deterrent to an Indian invasion.
As a side note, here is a link to a possible scenario of what might happen if India and Pakistan ever went to war: Click here. As a quick and dirty summary, India’s navy would severely dominate the seas and would cut off Pakistan’s main port of Karachi, both air forces would sustain major losses with India’s likely prevailing, and the strength of any land campaign is questionable (though both would sustain heavy damages – possibly more to Pakistan who would likely fight a defensive campaign). Keep in mind this is only a possible scenario, but it seems like a good deal of thought was put into the analysis (also consider that it was written about eight years ago). Overall, according to this view, Pakistan would likely sustain heavier losses, proportionately.
It has been estimated that Pakistan and India possess about 10-100 and 50-150 warheads, respectively. In addition, while Pakistan declared that it has detonated around six nuclear devices, India and the United States place the actual number around two, and believe that the devices were about two to three times weaker than the strengths Pakistan claimed the weapons had.
Every so often, little skirmishes occur on the Indo-Pakistani border. Is it possible that one of these could escalate into a full-fledged war, as in the Gulf of Tonkin incident? How far do you think either of the countries could push before nuclear weapons would be called upon? Do you think either country would ever use these weapons? Could Pakistan merely be bluffing with its nuclear claims?
-Jay Ponto
8 comments February 19th, 2010
