37 Comments Add your own

• 1. Robbin Forsyth  |  January 10th, 2011 at 10:29 pm

  I believe that there will be no “next” China. Other countries will be and are utilized for their inexpensive labor by global manufactures, (this is already happening in Vietnam, Bangladesh and Cambodia to name a few). But there is no single country that can match China in the shear scale, commitment to infrastructure and cultural focus on development that we have seen in China for the last 10 – 15 years. In addition to all of this, the Chinese people and government now have economies of experience to add to the mix. They have learned not only how to do things quickly, but better in the last several years. Basically China now has momentum behind it vast size and potential.
  Because of the difference in population size in addition to cultural and political factors, Brazil will never be China’s “equal”.
  To compare the two is like trying to compare a Cachaça (sugar cane liquor) and Choujiu (rice wine).
  I believe that because of its newly found oil reserves Brazil will evolve into more of a raw materials exporter than a manufacturing economy. With its wealth of farmland, minerals and oils Brazil will be a supplier to China. While Brazil has a large amount of manufacturing for export – aerospace, leather goods and food products, with only 200 million people it will never be a challenger to China’s overall manufacturing capacity.

• 2. Katie Moeller  |  January 12th, 2011 at 1:47 pm

  I don’t think Brazil would be the next China. I think Brazil has some great advantages to China – developing infrastructure and ports, business opportunities (need workers), land availability, and weather (environment). I think Brazil is lacking in the supply chain logistics compared to China. It showed that Brazil is building large ports so they are forward-looking to the exporting opportunities. However, I think Brazil has a lot of catching up to do in terms of highways and buildings. China has it figured out in terms of production buildings being in close proximity to get items produced fast and cheap. I believe India would be next in line behind China is supplying our material wants and supporting debt.

  The main difference I see when comparing the work ethic between China and Brazil would be hard work. The picture I got from watching this video is that people of Brazil are very relaxed and will get to it. The people of China work hard, work long days, and are timeline driven. I think Brazil will struggle to keep up with the quick pace and demand of the world. People are even questioning if Brazil will be ready for the World Cup.

• 3. David Hart  |  January 16th, 2011 at 9:57 pm

  Brazil is a country that is gaining influence in the world economy. However, I do not believe that it will compare to China any time soon.

  I found the Global Competitiveness Report to be really interesting. This report really takes a comprehensive look of many of the factors that affect a countries economy. It was especially interesting comparing China and Brazil. I will mention just a few of the many categories that are interesting. When it comes to world rankings on issues such as the quality of ports (China 67, Brazil 123), overall transportation (China 31, Brazil 67), rail (China 27, Brazil 87), Ethics/Corruption (China 47, Brazil 111), China certainly is ranked well ahead of Brazil. One area both countries are similar is their business sophistication (China 31, Brazil 41). Of course Brazil has competitive advantages as well. As the article stated, Brazil has important oil reserves as well as minerals that will play a large factor in their economic growth.

  That was interesting to see how “laid back” the culture in Brazil is. China certainly seems like they have more of a culture suited for manufacturing. I would be interested in seeing which cultures of the different countries of the world (besides China) would be considered the most conducive to having manufacturing type jobs. It will be interesting to see if countries like Russia or those in Africa will make strides in this area.

  It is hard to imagine other countries overtaking China in the manufacturing sector. Other countries in BRIC will have have their roles and successes, but it seems like China will be at or near the top.

  Two thirds of California exports go to Asian countries, Canada, and Mexico (http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/jaffee/Papers/CPRC.pdf). This certainly underscores the importance of working together with China, as they play such an importanat role in the world economy as well as the US and California economies.

• 4. Brady Haug  |  January 19th, 2011 at 6:31 pm

  Brazil will not be the next China, but certainly shows the signs of a country heading towards a great economic boom. I agree with Robin in that no other country will have to commitment to growth that occurs in China. Though the opportunity appears to be substantial, there are factors that will limit the growth of the country. The true competitive advantage of Brazil arises from their dominating wealth of resources (Iron Ore, Oil, fresh water). I have never studied Brazil and was shocked to hear statistics such as that they have the world’s largest cattle industry. I think this brings to light the first statement/joke that “it’s the country of the future and always will be.” In addition, Brazil appears globally enticing because of their “green” statistics. They are greener than the United States and have implemented extensive hydro power plants and bio fuel technologies. This would allow for more clean and efficient factory clusters to form outside the major cities.

  One of the main reasons why Brazil will not be the next China anytime soon, is due to the shear lack of infrastructure. The roads are riddled with pot holes, the transportation system is underdeveloped, and there is a lack of active renovation. A solid infrastructure is key to the buildup of an outsourcing hub. I also agree with Robin in that I feel Brazil will emerge as a huge raw materials supplier. They are currently more equipped to assume this role, rather than challenge China. The fact that the country is importing skilled labors due to a domestic lacking, is a poor sign of an economic rise. In addition, the country is drowning incorruption and drug trafficking which deters foreign investment. Lastly, the Chinese are traditionally known as a hard working people. I don’t think that the laid back ethic of Brazilians would be a detriment. Though fourteen hour factory shifts are unlikely there, a rise to world prominence could have an effect on the traditional work ethic.

• 5. Cassie Bettencourt  |  February 3rd, 2011 at 7:48 pm

  Brazil and China are very different places, and I do not believe Brazil will be the “next China.” That being said, I think that Brazil has a lot going for it. Hosting both the World Cup and the Olympics are positive signs for Brazil as it rises in the world’s opinion. After listening to the interviews in the video, it also seems that they want to be more than just a supplier to the world. They seem to be interested in status, respect for their citizens, popularity, and economic growth more than simply world power. I agree with the above posts that one of Brazil’s main attributes will be its ability to supply raw resources. The offshore oil discovery mentioned in the video is huge, and I believe this has increased the attention on Brazil in recent years. However, in regards to supply chain logistics, the video also stated that 90% of the roads in Brazil are unpaved, and that the public transportation is poor. I feel it is factors like these that will slow their supply chain efficiency and keep them from catching up to a country like China, which dominates in clustering and cost savings.

  One interesting thing I noticed in the Global Competitiveness Index was the difference in the Ethics and Corruption score between Brazil and China. Brazil was ranked much higher than China at 111 and 47 respectively. Although this doesn’t necessarily directly affect business or the economy, I think that it’s telling how well the innards of a country are functioning. It is hard to grow when you are struggling domestically. Additionally, I thought the health and education scores were telling. China was ranked at 37 whereas Brazil was ranked at 87. I believe both health and education are key success factors to positive growth.

  Finally, in response to the question of work ethic, I agree with Katie. The Chinese are known for working hard, long, and in sometimes less than desirable conditions. Brazil is known for their beaches, sporting events, and landscape. I think that the country with the most similar work ethic to China would be India in their service industry. It is this work ethic that might enable them to subsidize the debt of American consumers. Brazil’s more laid back attitude was portrayed in the video interview when the question of war was raised. The businessman basically said - why fight when you can go catch a game and drink a beer at the beach? This attitude does not correspond with a competitive business race and will definitely cause Brazil to struggle as the world demands more from it. China, on the other hand, will flourish.

• 6. Kristine Spencer  |  February 4th, 2011 at 2:58 pm

  Brazil seems like my kind of place! The beach, sun, and “peace and love” attitude all entice me, and Brazil just landed itself on my list of places to travel. There’s no doubt that Brazil is on the up and up, with its growing economy, wealth of natural resources, and huge opportunities such as the World Cup and the Olympics coming their way. Brazil’s competitive advantages are their abundant natural resources. The fresh water and land suited for agriculture is not something that China can create for themselves. Brazil’s culture of love and embracing the natural environment will be an advantage compared to China; China already has to deal with the consequences of their environmental abuse, whereas Brazil might not face those constraints and problems. Brazil’s commitment to renewable energy is promising. I see Brazil’s government (their current government at least) and free media as being a huge advantage. Their charismatic president was able to balance his social policies, which lifted many out of poverty and gave his people a newfound inspiration, with conservative fiscal policies and tight banking regulations. Their capitalist system will allow foreign investment to enter the country more easily than in China.

  Brazil does have some serious issues that it needs to overcome to be the next economic powerhouse. The corruption, crime, and drugs that fill the ghettos of Brazil must be taken care of. The clip depicting the crime in Brazil reminded me of the movie “City of God,” if anyone has seen that movie, which is great by the way. Businesses are going to be reluctant to invest in factories in Brazil if there is a high risk of danger and crime. The infrastructure, such as roads and transportation, will have to be greatly improved for business and commerce (for cost savings and efficiencies like in China), as well as the upcoming Olympics and World Cup. This massive construction boom brings out another Brazilian question: will their laid back culture be the cause for a construction delay, and maybe even their overarching cause for not becoming the rising superpower that they foresee themselves becoming? It is not bad to not be a “serious country,” but the workers need to be motivated and show up to work if this growing economic trend is to continue. I think that Chinese workers want to become a superpower more than the Brazilians do. The Chinese have an insatiable thirst to restore their former glory and become a world superpower. I think that no one can become “the next China,” but that Brazil will become a bigger player in the world economy. From a California standpoint, where agriculture is our largest industry, Brazil’s agriculture industry is a strong competitor.

• 7. Ashley Ogden  |  February 15th, 2011 at 9:48 pm

  Brazil does have some things going for it. It has a lot of natural resources, land, a green economy, an airplane industry, tourism, and a “popular President”. But they are lacking a few key ingredients if they are looking to be the next China. One major disadvantage is their lack of skilled workers. They are already importing workers from the United States to fill all the jobs they have created. Not only is Brazil lacking workers, their people are not motivated like the Chinese are. The Chinese workers are incredibly hard-working and I don’t think the Brazilians have that same mentality. They would “rather make love than war” but I think they would also rather go to beach than work. Brazil cannot make money bringing in high-cost American workers; it is not a good business plan. Another thing to point out is that China is Brazil’s biggest customer and one of the reasons why their economy is doing so good. This video pointed out that Brazil’s economy has burst before, what makes this time around different? They are still leveraged on debt, this time it is Chinese investment. Overall, Brazil has all the natural resources they can imagine, but I just don’t think they have the manpower to be the next China.

• 8. Chris Bruns  |  February 19th, 2011 at 3:57 pm

  It is my opinion that Brazil is not going to be the next China. Just with how the countries are run and the huge differences in culture, I believe that they will be different but connected. I think Brazil and China are going to continue to become more and more co-dependent and be stronger trading partners. If I was going to liken their relationship to something it would be that they are two halves of the same coin. Both nations want success and to create a better country and better lives for their citizens. And both countries have goals and aspirations that are overlap economically. The major differences what their definition of what ‘success’ and ‘better’ are. I think some of the first obstacles Brazil needs to overcome as it continues to grow and prosper is continuing with its solutions for the slums and all of the infrastructure problems, including bad roads, old buildings, and poor public transportation.

  I really enjoyed the video and it definitely mirrored a lot of what my best friend had said after living in Brazil for two years. It is a place that is proven to have a lot of opportunity, a great culture, and unique people. In agriculture they are making huge strides and it is one of the top countries to go and work in for on-the-job experience and training. But I believe it is true what the video said about it being a loose country that is laid back and “doesn’t mind being late.” I also really enjoyed what President Lula had to say and my favorite quotes of his were “We were a capitalist society without capital” and “The success of an elected official is in doing what is obvious. In what everyone knows what needs to be done.”

  Sidenote: here is my favorite line of the whole video “Brazil hasn’t fought a war since 1870. ‘Why fight? With all of the pleasures, beach and sun, war? Forget it. Soccer? Let’s watch a soccer game…’”

• 9. Will Moeller  |  February 19th, 2011 at 7:31 pm

  A lot of great questions here…
  I wish I had read all of this on Brazil before I actually went to Rio in 2008.

  So what are Brazil’s advantages. I’d say there are three. First, it has a younger population than China. Second, it is the largest “green” country in the world. This was something I saw firsthand. Every vehicle I rode in while in Brazil ran on natural gas. Every gas station I stopped at had only natural gas. Third, it’s China’s largest trading partner. Who’s making money off of Chinese consumption? Brazil. It’s doing so because of it’s vast natural resources (arable land and oil).

  Where I believe Brazil falls short, at least for now, is in the infrastructure category. Here’s a great example - A friend and I drove on the highway from Rio to Sao Paolo. Our driver told us there’s exactly one highway connecting the cities. This highway has two lanes. So as far as connecting cultural and business hubs, from what I’ve seen, Brazil has opportunities to improve efficiency.

  The 60 Minutes video begins by introducing the $27 billion dollar Brazilian businessman. It say he his home has the best view in Rio. However, he probably paid a small fortune for it. As far as picturesque cities go, Rio is amazing with beaches and mountains - yes I’d venture to say it even beats good old SLO town. But here’s what unbelievable. The favelas (poorer, crime-ridden neighborhoods the government is trying to regain control of) have million dollar views atop the city. Think about this, these are essentially shantytowns with homes made of cardboard and thatched roof with a malibu-like ocean views. There’s really no other way to describe it other than astonishing. It’s something worth seeing firsthand.

  Anyway, rather than argue which emerging market building BRIC will be the most dominant in the next 40 years, I’d rather pump my 401k money into an emerging markets mutual fund, kick my feet up, and crack open a bottle of cachaca. Robbin, you in?

• 10. Sarah Weinzapfel  |  February 20th, 2011 at 2:30 pm

  Brazil definitely sounds like a place I could live. Despite the poverty stricken parts that every country has, I think it’s a gorgeous place. If I were to live in a “different” place, I would choose Brazil over China. However, I don’t think anywhere is going to be the “next China”. Just like in the TEDx video and post, China is not becoming the West and no one is going to become like China. Brazil has oil and other natural resources that play as important economic advantages that will help the growth of their economy, but China is ranked well above them in many factors such as transportation and ethics, to name a few.

  I thought the President was an interesting character. I was inspired by his background and what he as in turn done for the country. I really had no idea about anything regarding Brazil until this video. It has inspired me to do some more research. I had no idea the boom they were having, how green they are, the level of corruption, the progress they have made, and how far they have yet to come.

  My favorite part of the video was Mr. Bueno, the commentator they interviewed. He gave great insight into their kick-back culture. I thought it was funny the way he poked fun with the World Cup event coming up and how they will be putting the grass down as the ball is rolling. He was colorful and wasn’t trying to hide this characteristic of their culture at all. I thought he was extremely entertaining to listen to.

  His insight seemed to explain another reason why Brazil won’t be the next China: their work ethic. The Chinese, like many others have said and we’ve observed for our selves, have an intense work ethic and a reputation for working long and hard hours. Cheap labor has nothing to do with it. There are plenty of other countries besides China and Brazil that companies have found cheap labor in. From this video, it didn’t sound like Brazilians care to live that lifestyle. Especially when they’re used to a lifestyle like theirs.

• 11. Jessica Shayler  |  February 21st, 2011 at 8:07 pm

  “They’re gonna be planting the grass while the ball is already rolling.” Brazil seems like one of my former students: so much incredible potential, but lacking the internal impetus to make things happen for themselves. They are the 5th largest economy, growing 3 times faster than the US, posses incredible natural resources… Yet they lack skilled labor, have sub-par infrastructure, and a criminal drug problem. For these and other reasons, Brazil will probably not supplant China. Nor should it try to. I feel they’re problem right now is not whether or not they could meet this goal, it’s choosing a goal they want to pursue. I get the feeling that Brazil has so many things going for it, no one can agree on a direction and stick with it. I’m a little sad to see President “Lula” go, he seemed to be the only one who not only chose an appropriate direction, but was also able to make people want to follow it. “We are not second class citizens…we can get things done…now people have started to believe it.” But will they believe it now that he’s gone?

  “We were a capitalist society with no capital!” One of the more brilliant things President Lula did was his economic reform: bottom-up (cash to the people) and top-down (cash to big businesses), but with increased regulations. With all the argument in the US about whether a bottom-up approach to the recent bail-outs would have been better than the top-down method, I’m curious what would have happened if we did both?

  “Hello? It’s time for American’s to wake up!” Despite their seeming lack of motivation to succeed by our’s and China’s standards, we can learn some things from Brazil. “Why fight with all the pleasures?” No, we are not all blessed with tropical weather and beautiful beaches, but not many things are worth fighting over. We need to learn to be more selective in our conflicts else we destroy what we are trying to protect.

• 12. Tim Easton  |  February 21st, 2011 at 9:25 pm

  I really enjoyed this 60 Minutes story, and actually watched it when it aired back in December. Brazil is a place that I could see myself moving to in the future. The laid back attitude, the beach, and soccer are all extremely appealing. Living in Southern California my entire life, I have the same laid back attitude and for the most part just let things happen. My favorite line from the 60 Minutes story was, “Why do something today when we can pay someone else to do it tomorrow”. I am actually planning a trip to Brazil for the 2014 World Cup, so it is exciting to hear about it in the news. I do believe that Brazil will be ready for the World Cup in 2014, especially since soccer is such a huge part of their culture. This is their chance to show themselves off to the rest of the world, and I do not think that they will blow that opportunity. There used to be a great promotional video on YouTube for Brazil, and the 2014 World Cup, but I can’t find it right now. Even though I think that Brazil will do a good job with the World Cup, I do not believe that they are the next China. In my opinion, the biggest thing holding Brazil back is the laid back attitude of the people. I think the laid back attitude is fine for Brazil and is one of the most beautiful things about the country, even though I haven’t been there yet. Brazil has all of the resources to become the next great power, and they are slowly moving in that direction, but there won’t be the huge burst onto the scene. The growth and development of China is helping Brazil because China is Brazil’s largest trading partner but it will be interesting to see what happens when development in China slows. The potential is there for Brazil to become the next China, but the odds are against them.

• 13. Jason Jay Sharma  |  February 26th, 2011 at 3:24 am

  This 60 Minutes segment brought a smile to my face. For a country that was regularly considered an afterthought, it’s great to see that they pulled through as an underdog (and in their own laid-back style, nonetheless). With so much focus on other countries around the world, not much attention is given to South America in general when it comes to development in the future. While Brazil is physically the largest country in the continent, I’ve always considered Chile and Argentina as contenders for the booming country in South America. As it was mentioned, I always thought of Brazil as the slow-paced, beach-y, relaxed, and laid-back country and have always wanted to go because of these reasons. The 60 Minutes video helped to remind me of the substance Brazil actually has and it’s extremely impressive.

  In the earlier blog post regarding a new Silicon Valley in China, I remarked that there never could be a new Silicon Valley (not calculated, anyway). That was a perfect intersection of people, place, and time. China’s current state follows these same rules, and I doubt Brazil could be another “China.” The biggest difference I am seeing between China and Brazil is that Brazil has jumped ahead in development and quality of life for its people. Part of this is probably due to the larger population, but I don’t think Brazil will ever be able to be the next “factory” like China, either–there aren’t enough people to work at this competitive level. All in all, Brazil is on its way and will become a much more powerful and influential economy in the future, and it’s doing it on its own terms: “Why do something today when you can pay someone to do it the day after tomorrow.”

• 14. Anthony Kallioinen  |  February 27th, 2011 at 11:05 am

  Wow, I feel like I was just hearing this about China a couple years ago, now Brazil is coming like a freight train. It appears as though Brazil has solved many of the problems that have plagued other developed countries. Brazil has the ‘greenest’ economy, a vast supply of many natural resources, and has access to what is believed to be a very large store of oil. They are making their entrance to the world in a similar way as China, although with the World Cup as opposed to the Olympics. The thing that will most determine whether Brazil is able to maintain its recent productivity is whether it does not ‘shoot itself in the foot’ as it has done in the past. This occurrence may be due to the accumulation of the country’s cultural preference for a more lax lifestyle. It is hard to be at the top, much less a frontrunner; does Brazil’s economy match the stamina of its football team?

  Carr is right. The video said that what Brazil needs is skilled labor — although I don’t think that Brazil will surpass China, I believe Portuguese and the Brazilian lifestyle is easier to learn.

• 15. Jessie Wilkie  |  February 28th, 2011 at 3:04 pm

  Brazil seems to be a pretty chill place. I definitely would love to go see that country and who knows maybe live there. Some of our previous blogs have talked about living and working abroad and quality of life, and it seems to me that by my definition, Brazil has a really good quality of life. “War? Let’s go watch the soccer game!” Awesome.

  If we are to compare Brazil to the world and more specifically China, we would see the following. Brazil’s strengths seem to be its vast natural resources. It has 14% of the world’s freshwater, huge offshore oil reserves, beautiful land, cattle, rainforest, etc. Brazil also has the greenest economy for its size. China, on the other hand, is polluted and much of it is a wasteland that keeps polluting the world. Another one of Brazil’s strengths might be more hidden–its laid back culture. Brazil’s culture leads for happy citizens and happy citizens lead to few domestic issues. Whereas a country like China has tons of domestic problems. Also, Brazil has an airline manufacturer where China doesn’t. I know that China has been trying to strike a deal to get the means to produce airplanes, but I’m not sure where that stands. Brazil’s infrastructure is more similar to India than to China–not high quality. The country’s infrastructure acts as an impediment to massive trade and factories being put up there (if you can’t transport the goods then there it’s counterintuitive to put a factory there).

  As for the next China, I’m going to guess subsaharan Africa. Once we exhaust all of the cheap labor in China we will need to go somewhere where people are desperate. The infrastructure will come too. Yes, I think Subsaharan Africa will be the next factory of the world, but not for some time.

• 16. Amanda Podesta  |  March 4th, 2011 at 10:58 pm

  After watching the 60 Minute piece, I actually think that Brazil may have more stable future economic prospects than China. The debt gets referenced as a qualifier but why is this any different than what the America’s debt situation? Debt can be leveraged, especially if it’s getting invested as seems to be implication and not a part of pure consumption. The unskilled labour force seems a sticking point as well. The key point was that skilled workers – not corporations (which typically siphon the money back home)—where migrating into Brazil; as long as Brazil is welcoming and integrative than in the end, it will all become a part of Brazil’s GDP. The government is also popular and very socially responsible. The unlikelihood of civil unrest would be very appealing to enterprises looking to expand globally. The same cannot be said definitely about China.

• 17. Randy Camat  |  March 5th, 2011 at 3:44 pm

  With all this talk about China and India, I didn’t realize that Brazil was another frontrunner. Brazil is in a very good position to potentially follow in China’s footsteps as another world economic power. I do admire it’s green economy and if managed well, the amount of oil discovered could boost the economy with even greater wealth and make it a more attractive country to work in than maybe the US and China. Who knows. The one potential drawback to this success could be the corruption that comes with it, which several times brought down the Brazilian economy. It is up to the new presidency to make or break Brazil. However, I think Brazil will not disappoint us since they’re on deck for the world to see as they will host the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics. There is too much at stake.

  To answer the question of the next ‘China’ I’m not sure if Brazil or any country will be the next China. China is in it’s own league when talking about economic growth as I watched the TEDx video on understanding China. It will be between Brazil and India to become the next frontrunner. I think Brazil seems to be a more attractive choice for someone that wants to work abroad due to its green reputation and the Brazilian ‘easy-going’ lifestyle.

• 18. j hurley  |  March 5th, 2011 at 9:03 pm

  I had no idea that Brazil was growing at such a fast pace. From the video, it appears that Brazil is beginning to build up its infrastructure in anticipation of becoming a world wide economic player. Even though Brazil appears to be doing very well, I don’t think that it will become the next China.
  Even though Brazil is has the greenest economy, very large oil reserves as well as a very large export organization, I don’t think it has the scale to become the next China. As the video points out, Brazil does not have the shear size in human work force, and lacks qualified people to fill the hundreds of millions of jobs that Brazil has created in this last year alone.
  China has been able to use its vast population and size to find its competitive advantage in the world market through cheap labor and mass production. At this point in time, no country will be able to keep up with China’s development.

• 19. Tyler Sereno  |  March 6th, 2011 at 3:15 pm

  Brazil is currently trying to figure out how to manage their great economic boom. They were the last country to enter the great recession, the first to leave it, and is becoming the fifth largest economy in the world. Brazil’s economy is growing three times faster the American economy. It has the most sophisticated biofuels system and it is becoming the greenest economy as well. There are some great aspects of Brazil, but I do not see it becoming the next China anytime soon.

  The work ethic of the Chinese is much greater than that of Brazil. People of Brazil are very laid back and they have the mentality of why make something if someone else can do it for them. In the video, it was mentioned that Brazil is not a serious country and that they have no ambition. Brazil has the ability to become a serious player in the global economy, but there is work that needs to be done. It has the size to fulfill the needs of the Chinese, but they need more skilled labor. Changes are being made, and there have been many improvements in Brazil. Military police began cracking down and cleaning up the crime in the slums. The offshore oil discoveries in Brazil can make them third or fourth largest producer in the world. They are also opening large ports, and businesses should begin to look at Brazil as a potential partner.

• 20. Tara Millard  |  March 7th, 2011 at 6:19 pm

  This post was informative and thought- provoking. I previously thought, like other ignorant Americans, that Brazil was grouped with other South American countries economically, politically etc. In addition, Brazil has always been revered for its beautiful beaches and tourist attractions. While it is indeed full of beautiful attractions, I was unaware of the booming economic situation that Brazil is currently boasting. The idea that Brazil is exporting to China more than the US is, that the have vast natural resources, and the fact that they have perhaps the most loved president in office leaves me in amazement. Furthermore, Brazil’s advanced status in green energy should be a model all other countries are looking to. Yet, somehow Brazil has remained under the radar. I am unsure of whether this is intentional or merely a result of all the attention focused on the growth in China.

  While Brazil is booming, and will see a further economic boom after hosting the World Cup and the Olympics, I don’t believe they are the next China. While China has one of the densest populations, filled with people eager to work, Brazil is at nearly full capacity for employment and still cannot find enough skilled labor in its own country. While China is overcrowded with factories, buildings and people, Brazil maintains its secluded and intimate nature in many of its locations. Furthermore, China has seen rapid but steady growth, while Brazil has recently seen its financial bubble pop leading to two-hundred percent inflation. China has been tried and trusted as a true world power, whereas Brazil still has much time to gain the trust of the world market. While Brazil is not the next China as of current, and is not on its way to controlling the global market, the direction it is going makes this a topic that we should continue to watch.

• 21. Chris Fung  |  March 9th, 2011 at 11:36 pm

  I agree with those that there will never be another China when it comes to the rapid growth and modernization that it has undergone these past three decades. There will be other big players on the international market (i.e. the rest of the BRIC countries and other south Asian countries) but they will never outpace what the Chinese can put to market. I think it is because the Chinese are in a particular advantageous position compared to other countries in that large scale operations and infrastructure can be implemented and built faster because it is probably in the best interest of the State. Other countries are burdened with the bureaucracy of government to make the changes that quickly.

  Looking through the Global Competitiveness Report, Brazil does outpace China in terms of higher education and training (barely), financial market development, and technological readiness in government resources. However given these advantages, Brazil will not become the next factory of the world. This is due to the fact that the country’s infrastructure is not as efficient or large as China and the factories are not as clustered to distribution channels as China’s manufacturing power is. But as the video pointed out, the glaring reason that I can see that holds back Brazil’s development is the work ethics of its citizens. It seems like the Brazilians know how to balance work life and personal life to enjoy the fields and beaches. However, it is this “laid-back” attitude that will hinder any chance of rapid development. China reached the level of where it is today because the citizens work very hard to get ahead and thus were the driving force that made change possible.
  Brazil does have the opportunity to be a major supplier of raw materials and energy to the world due to its large natural resources and untapped oil reserves. It could also subsidize the U.S. debt if it is successful in developing means to sell their oil and other natural resources more efficiently. In terms of stuff addiction, India and many other south Asian countries have the ability to help the U.S. with its “Stuff Addiction.”

  With California, the top five export markets are 1) Mexico 2) Canada 3) Japan 4) China 5) South Korea. California accounts for 11% of total U.S. exports with exports totaling in excess of $120 billion in 2009.
  http://www.calchamber.com/International/Trade/Pages/TradeStatistics.aspx

• 22. Dan N  |  March 10th, 2011 at 4:45 pm

  With inflation going the way its going, Brazil’s emergence has a world economic power is not conceivable for one simple reason: natural resources. China’s labor advantage is quickly evaporating and companies are beginning to see that relatively cheap labor is useless without access to raw materials. Increasing Chinese wages and rapidly rising energy costs - impacting the cost of moving raw and finished goods around the world - work together to undermine the long term view that China can sustain its status as the “Factory of the World”. After all that I’ve seen and read concerning China’s rise, there is nothing that has convinced me that China’s emergence needs to be independent of the rise of powers such as Brazil. I believe that the global economy can and will redirect global trade away from China and towards Brazil if it makes sense to do so. China can’t afford to have wages, inflation, or energy costs rise much further without potentially lose its competitive advantage.

  Brazil also has an advantage over China that I haven’t heard yet, Western ways. They use the Latin alphabet. They also speak a Western language - Portugese. Finally, they were a European colony dating back to 1500 so they do “things” the way we do. All other things being equal, would you rather outsource your manufacturing to China - with their fundamentally different way of thinking - or some place more “familiar” like Brazil. All other things being equal, it’s a no brainer.

• 23. Kyle R.  |  March 13th, 2011 at 9:31 am

  I don’t think we will see another “China” anytime soon. It seems as if Brazil, Russia, and India are expected to continue grow, but who knows what the future holds. I doubt that that Brazil is going to be the China, because of their relaxed attitude. China has a massive population who is ambitious and dedicated to increasing their wealth. I didn’t get that impression from the 60 Minutes clip. The Brazilian renewable energy supply may be their comparative advantage when compared to China. The seem to be years ahead of most counties in terms of cleaner energy. It is very possible that Brazil could be the next “factory of the world.” Brazil has the resources that the rest of the world demands. I’m not sure who has the better infrastructure currently, but Brazil seems to have the money to spend on it.

  I have a friend who has told me many times that Africa is a country to be on the lookout for. He has two companies that exist in Ethiopia, and he’s very optimistic about what the future holds. One of his businesses is a coffee company the harvests the beans, packages them, and then ships to the U.S. under his label. He says that the locals there are very excited and dedicated to their work. He believes that the costs associated with going to Ethiopia are so low, that it make s no sense to go anywhere else.

• 24. Ben Raymond  |  March 13th, 2011 at 1:26 pm

  Brazil’s wealth of natural resources and recent economic development have made it a name for itself in the emerging market conversation. There are definitely opportunities to be had in Brazil. It is one of places I have identified as a potential working abroad location. The business opportunities combined with the environment and lifestyle make it an attractive option. This being said, I don’t think it will be the next China. China’s massive size and work ethic make it one of a kind. I think Brazil has potential to be a huge player in global economics, but more as an exporter. I think the recently discovered oil reserves reinforce this theory. I think the attitudes of the people will also greatly determine what kind of economic engine Brazil will be. As stated by the people, Brazil is very laid back and not overly concerned with meeting deadlines. China has so many people willing to work extremely hard for extremely little, I don’t think anyone else can compare with that. It will be very interesting to see how the World Cup and Olympics play out. It was obvious that China used the Olympics to make a statement not only to its own people, but to the world. I think Brazil’s execution of these major world events will speak a lot to their future and how the world, and their own people, view them.

• 25. J Vail  |  March 14th, 2011 at 12:23 pm

  I had always considered Brazil as one of the world’s largest economies, but I had no idea how well they are doing. An abundance of natural resources, the leading exporter of beef, chicken, coffee, sugar, largest producer of iron ore, while being the ‘greenest’ for an economy of that size – all of these attributes I would have never expected from Brazil. It also has one advantage over China in that it provides all of these necessary resources that they cannot produce to the same amount in their own country. What is also important for Americans to note is that the one thing Brazil still needs is skilled labor – one of the few things that America has a decent supply of. I still am fascinated by this 60 minutes special and it makes me wonder why Brazil hasn’t been getting more attention, especially considering they made 1.5 million jobs last year.

  The leader of Brazil was as charismatic as the descriptions that preceded him – he also had a great quote; “The success of an elected official is in the art of doing what is obvious. It is what everyone knows needs to be done, but some insist on doing differently”. The monthly stipend for the poor was an amazing idea, which has led to a healthier, better educated, and less downtrodden lower class. This is a policy that I think would be effective in every country and goes along with his earlier postulation that things like this are obvious and ‘need to be done’. It’s also inspiring that a man with only a 4th grade education could become such a dramatic and well-respected leader. “If there is something that I am proud of it is to tell my people that we are not second class citizens. That we can get things done. We can believe in ourselves. And now people have started to believe”.

• 26. JP Salazar  |  March 18th, 2011 at 12:12 am

  I agree with the idea presented in this video that Brazil has the potential of becoming a major economic power. Brazil has both the natural resources and the access to cheap labor needed to grow its economy at a large rate, three times larger than the growth of the US. There were two interesting ideas talked about early in the video. First, I thought it was really cool that Brazil has the largest green economy in the world. It is surprising to see a country like Brazil with its huge reserves of oil relies on bio fuels and hydroelectricity to power most of its energy needs. The US could learn quite a bit about energy reform and the development of new energy industries in Brazil. I find it disconcerting that a developing nation that is lacking in skilled labor is so far ahead of the US, one of the most technologically advanced nations in the world. This leads to the second piece of information that I found extremely interesting. The lack of skilled labor has resulted in companies bringing in Americans to perform work within Brazil. Brazil has such a high demand for labor right now that employers can not find people to fill its positions. This
  To be honest, before this video I had never really thought of Brazil as a world economic power. I always had the impression that Brazil was a dirty, undeveloped, and care free nation. When I thought of Brazil in the past the key image that comes to mind is the celebration of Carnival. I never thought of Brazilians as intense, but much more light hearted. This is reinforced by this video. But it has also opened my eyes to the potential that Brazil possesses.
  I agree with the 60 minute piece that before Brazil can take its place as an economic power it has some major hurdles it must overcome. Crime and infrastructure issues can really hinder the development of its economic growth. Also, the pressure from the World Cup can be either a boon or a curse. If they can get their act together and get all the construction and modernization required for the tournament done then they have the opportunity to really showcase how far they have come in a short time on the world stage. However, if they can not, they can face embarrassment that could have long reaching effects on their hopes of political and economic growth.

• 27. Omar Pradhan  |  March 18th, 2011 at 3:15 pm

  Wow, I’m really impressed with the information provided by the World Economic Forum’s global competitiveness report. It’s interesting to see how the US compares to the BRIC nations along a variety of indices (using the “Country profiles” tab). As to the question: “Is Brazil the next ‘ factory of the world’…,” the 60 minutes video sure does make it seem so. Key takeaways for me: Brazil is energy comes from 80% hydroelectricity, they are innovating / have the most sophisticated bio fuels, they are the world’s largest producer of iron ore, beef, chicken, OJ, sugar, coffee, and tobacco, etc. I had the opportunity to travel to Brazil in 2004. The country is beautiful and vast. The cultural concerns raised by Bueno (e.g. “Brazilians put up with incredibly high taxes on almost everything, have a high tolerance for corruption, bureaucratic red tape…incompetence.”) are serious. I watched a movie a few years back called “City of God” and it was an eye opening account of life in the Favelas. It’s good to read about the recent crackdowns by military police on 13 (of 40) and counting favelas. I also was not aware of the government policy to incentivize poor parents to send their children to school and doctors (when needed). This certainly is a good sign of things to come (i.e. Brazil will have a sustainable competitive advantage when this generation of healthier, more educated Brazilians reaches working age). I, for one, will be watching to see how things progress leading up to the 2014 World Cup, 2016 Olympics and beyond.

• 28. Kevin K.  |  December 29th, 2011 at 11:51 am

  First off, Brazil is not China. We have watched enough videos about China on this blog to see the glaring differences between the two countries — both socially and economically. It just happens that the social aspect of Brazil is literally a world apart from China. However, there is a very defined lack of discipline with Brazil, one that China has already mastered. So is Brazil the next China? Probably not. Will it be right up there with the U.S., certainly. However, the region I think has the best potential to become the next China is Africa. This is a continent that has been abused by the world for centuries, but with the model China has laid before it has the chance to turn things around. They have great natural resources and scores of impoverished citizens that combined could become the world’s next great factory.

  With Brazil, as the former president and the commentator stated, it is just not cut out to be the world’s superpower. Their lackadaisical attitude — while something as Californians we can identify with — will hold them back from being China. However, with such great natural resources (and I’m not just talking about the beaches) and a growing economy Brazil has an incredibly bright future. At the moment they do have the world’s stage with the World Cup and Olympics heading their way, but can the Brazilians pull it off? We have just a couple years before we find out.

• 29. Vladimir  |  December 31st, 2011 at 4:02 pm

  According to the GDP projections in Martin Jacques’ TEDx presentation on the rise of China, Brazil’s GDP in 2025 will be only $3 billion compared to China’s $18 billion, India’s $4 billion, and the US’ $20 billion in current US dollars. For 2050, the projections are Brazil - $10 billion, China - $70 billion, India and US - $38 billion each. So I wouldn’t say Brazil is the next China. Beyond these numbers, Brazil and China are two very different countries.

  Unlike China, Brazil won’t be facing a pollution problem any time soon. 70% of China’s electricity comes from coal and the country faces coal shortages. Brazil’s strength is its natural resources. 80% of Brazil’s electricity comes from hydroelectric power. With a huge discovery of oil made recently off the coast of Brazil, the country will have plenty of fuel for sale and consumption. At a population under 200 million, Brazil doesn’t have nearly as many people as China has. How much do Brazilians care about becoming the next China, and how much does their government want to push growth? Enjoying life seems to be a much greater part of Brazilian than Chinese culture. All three interviewees had a jovial demeanor. How much do the Chinese party on the beach? The job growth outlook for Brazil looks good. But, I don’t think Brazilians would be willing to work in manufacturing at wages comparable to the Chinese and I don’t see Brazil as a country companies will outsource to as they do to China. I see India as the next China for the world’s outsourcing needs. Unlike China, Brazil has a shortage of a skilled labor pool and is recruiting American workers. According to the video, Brazil’s export capabilities are up to the task of serving the demands of China, but 90% of roads in the country are unpaved. According to the Global Competitiveness Index, Brazil is much more corrupt than China and the United States and the people trust politicians far less. It’ll be interesting to see if the country can sustain its economic growth with its work ethic and political climate.

• 30. Daniel Fleek  |  January 19th, 2012 at 11:45 am

  That video really made me want to go to Brazil. I think Brazil being a place that people want to visit due to its culture and climate gives it a big advantage over China since in my opinion this will help businessmen want to come to Brazil. Compared to the business environment of China, I would think that Brazil is much more laid back which may make for great relationships. However, like the video mentioned, the disadvantage of Brazil would also be this casual laid back lifestyle since how are businesses to operate efficiently if they don’t know when people or things will show up.

  There are also a lot of similarities that I noticed in these videos we have been watching between Brazil and China. For example, both countries have slums right outside the expensive properties. However, one huge advantage to Brazil is the fact that the natural resources are everywhere. From the rain forest to the oil bed right offshore, I believe these are Brazil’s greatest strengths. Also, since Brazil already has many environmentally conscious policies in play, I feel that they will use their natural resources much more resourcefully than China. This may make Brazil the next “factory of the world” since like the video mentioned, they are now supplying more goods to China than any country in the world. However, for this to happen, I think they need to invest in research and development of machines instead of relying on their laidback workforce. This is China’s advantage as it has strength in efficient numbers.

  On the California front, I feel that we export to China more than Brazil since we have a large agricultural industry. However, especially with the discovery of the oil fields in Brazil, I think Brazil will become a larger importer for natural resources in the future with China remaining the biggest importer for consumer goods. Also, it seems that with California sharing a similar laid back lifestyle as Brazil, many health products and knowledge seems to be coming from Brazil. This includes things like the Acai Berry and Brazilian Nut which have been promoted in US markets as helping reduce cancer rates and to lose weight.

• 31. Grant  |  February 4th, 2012 at 1:49 pm

  I think that Brasil has its own unique opportunities and challenges that Chine doesn’t have. I think Brasils greatest challenge is the “manana” mentality. The rest of the world runs on schedule and values production per unit of time, where as Latin America, Brazilians do not have the same value of time.
  That being said, I think that there are going to be enough entrepreneurs that will figure out a way to work within the system to take advantage of Brazil’s vast resources.
  I had the opportunity to work a bit in Brazil, in an outskirt of Rio de Janiero, in Niteroi, and I came away from there with some interesting observations. There is almost no racism in Brazil, which is great for the future of the country. They have a huge problem with street children, who have been abandoned by promiscuous parents, left to commit a variety of crimes in order to survive. Often these children are seen as a huge liability for business owners, and, because of corrupt police, business owners often pay the police to make the “problem” go away. We had an opportunity to go to a futbol game, in Rio’s stadium, where we witnessed 176,000 Brazilians worshiping the players of their national sport. From that experience, I saw a national pride that I have never seen in any other country.
  So in the end, I think Brazil will succeed, but it won’t be done on western terms. It will be done on Brazilian terms. On their way to success, we will look in from the outside and remain skeptical, and they will continue to surprise us. They are not going to be China, they will remain Brazil.
  China has a lot of cultural characteristics that we as westerners admire (and some we don’t too), such as an incredible work ethic, and appreciate how serious they take life. Brazil on the other hand, has certain characteristics that we as westerners don’t necessarily appreciate, but I think deep down, are a little jealous of, such as their warm relationships, their charm, and of course all the beauty that comes from Brazil, both from the people and country itself.
  With regard to being from California, I feel a greater connection with Latin America than China. I think that China will continue to be a manufacturing hub for the world, but I think the resources necessary to be manufactured will come, in large part, from Brazil. Agriculture, mining, and energy are its strengths.
  There are two trends that will bode well for Brazil over China. Population growth will continue to provide labor and keep manufacturing supplied with workers and thus keep prices down. But resources are becoming more scarce and more energy intensive to extract, so those resources are going to be bid up by the demands of an ever increasing world population that desires the western lifestyle, which is both energy and resource rich. It is the inherent value derived from those resource’s scarcity that will give Brazil its edge over countries like China that has an over supply of cheap labor.

• 32. Charles Dornbush  |  February 18th, 2012 at 1:39 pm

  First off I think China and Brazil couldn’t be more different. While both have booming economies and a bright outlook, China is and will continue to be the ‘factory of the world’. Brazil’s economy seems like it will continue to focus on its natural resources: food, coffee and most importantly, oil. If the Brazilian discovery of oil is as big as predicted, it can cover many deficiencies in both social and political behavior. Ultimately Brazil will not develop a manufacturing economy because their culture is so different. I don’t think Brazilians would put up with the grueling factory workweeks that the more disciplined Chinese now experience. That being said Brazil has a very good chance of developing a successful economy that focuses in other sectors, but will probably never rival China or the U.S. And it seems like Brazilians are content with that.

  As for the next factory of the world, I think we should look to Africa. Although it might take many years, I think the potential of cheap labor and untapped resources in Africa will eventually lead to people taking business risk in Africa. The instability of the region will probably lead to this not happening for some time however. As the BRIC countries develop, I think many of the world’s needs that are currently being met by China will need to shift to cheaper labor in Africa.

• 33. Jeffrey Brown  |  February 28th, 2012 at 11:44 pm

  Brazil seems to be a huge contrast when compared to China (and even the United States). Brazil’s growth is occurring more independently and far less aggressively than any other economy the world has seen before. The economy is a major exporter to China and America and seems to rely very little on imports. This view that I am speculating on is purely from the nature of the goods they export and the manner in which they do it. Though it is not mentioned in the video, I would assume global trade is relatively unrestricted and the country is not in any major debt to any other country.

  Essentially, the Brazilian work ethic is to make the best of what they have and run with it. The Brazilians certainly have been provided with some great resources and are making good use of them, but what happens when these resources do not provide the solution? The Chinese work ethic would seem to be much more able to cope with limited resources, but yet it seems as if the Brazilians would find a way to make things work.

  The end of the video really sums it up with the topic of war - “War? Forget about it, let’s watch a soccer game and have a beer.” While this lax attitude may be great for keeping at peace with other nations, they are still at a war of some sorts with themselves. Brazil has a long way to go in transforming the slums into something the western view would see as more modern day. After watching this video I can definitely see Brazil becoming a major player in the world economy in the not-too-distant future, but if left up to the Brazilians it will happen whenever it does (and they will probably be late getting there, too).

• 34. Fred S.  |  March 8th, 2012 at 6:05 pm

  Beaches, soccer, and beer? It sounds like someone from California could get along quite nicely in a country such as Brazil. And like California, Brazil shares some very valuable resources. That is their competitive advantage. They are not the hardest workers, but they have the resources to create some serious value.

  Brazil has the foundations of a steady source of power. The country is home to many massive hydroelectric power plants. Hydro is one of the greenest sources of energy available, and Brazil is one of the greenest economic powers in the world. I do not think that Brazil will reach the manufacturing capabilities of China, mainly because they lack the work ethic that the Chinese hold. However, I believe they have the resources to make a significant impact amongst the economies of the world. If their oil find is as large as they say, that is alone capable of stirring up the pot.

• 35. Georgia  |  March 12th, 2012 at 4:10 pm

  Wow! I am definitely guilty of thinking of soccer when Brazil comes up, but not anymore. It is great to hear about an emerging economy that’s main power source is water. Hearing that 1.5 million jobs were created in the last year, with almost full employment is amazing. I like the former president’s quote, “the success of an official is in doing what is obvious.”
  If America is willing to go to war over oil they should buddy up with Brazil for their new found oil. I don’t believe that Brazil will be the next China. Their attitudes are so different. In China everything is go, go, go, while Brazilians don’t mind being “a little late.”
  In a mostly uneducated guess I think that possibly Africa could duplicate what China has done. But I don’t see them taking on their debt- how could they afford to? But in the same way China has been urbanized due to factory output, so could Africa. But I mostly feel that when each country comes to power it is on their terms. Brazil’s former president, as one of the commentators said, “was the right man at the right time.” I think this pairing is essential because even the most inspirational leader can fall on deaf ears if the country is not ready. I hope and believe that Brazil will continue rising in its own right.

• 36. Ashley Tyra  |  March 12th, 2012 at 10:14 pm

  “Brazil is the country of the future and always will be.”
  “Brazilians don’t mind to be late.”
  “Brazil is not a serious country.”

  If quotes like these are true, Brazil will never be the ‘factory of the world.’ Even though Brazil is on the rise, it might as well be a polar opposite to China. Although Brazil is reaching full employment, there is still a lack of skilled workers. The laid back lifestyle that exists in Brazil does not provide an environment that is conducive to efficiency and high production. Perhaps a better heir to the title would be Africa. Creating jobs where they don’t already exist and where they might be more wanted could benefit Africa far greater than Brazil.

  With that being said, Brazil has staked out its place in the world. It is the most powerful country in South America and their economy is growing at a rate of 7% – three times faster than the US economy. It produces 80% of its electricity from hydroelectric power and is home to 14% of the world’s fresh water supply. The Brazilian landscape is full of natural resources not yet cloaked by pollution. If Brazil could have a strict, on time, high efficiency work ethic, then I would say they would be the next China – but they won’t. Brazilians are more concerned with life’s pleasures, and wouldn’t stand to be confined to a factory when there is the beach and sun outside. Brazil will be something very different but equally great.

• 37. Keith Cody  |  March 14th, 2012 at 11:15 pm

  Towards the end of the 60 minutes video, Steve Kroft mentions that in the 21st century, the BRIC countries will dominated the world economy. This may slip past most viewers.

  Some economists expect Brazil to become the next economic super power. While India and China will become the clothing and technology manufacturers to the world, and Russia a major exporter of natural resources, Brazil will become both. It will be the number one exporter of natural resources and a world class manufacturing economy.

  Brazil is the steadiest of the BRICs. It’s economic problems are nearly a generation behind it. It’s a “moderately free” country, with a full-blooded democracy; it has no serious disputes with its neighbors and it is the only BRIC without a nuclear bomb.

  Eike Batista noted that the newly discovered reserves off the coast of brazil, have the potential to produce a trillion dollars in wealth. As the only BRIC without a nuclear weapon, and not have fought a war in over a 100 years, this is a true opportunity. Imagine what the US could be like, what our freeways and schools and collages could be like, if we hadn’t just squandered a trillion dollars in the desert, but instead invested in America. Working on my MS in Econ at UCSB, we calculated the cost of “fixing” social security, the total unfunded liability, as one trillion dollars. Most economists estimate Iraq and Afghanistan will cost more than three trillion. Would you rather have Social Security, or the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Luckily for themselves, Brazilians do not have to answer this.

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